WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 9/26/25

Neoguri is lost at sea, while Bualoi could become a typhoon before hitting Vietnam early next week. A couple of other disturbances have a low development potential during the next 7 days but could bring some rain to the Philippines.

Author

Will Weaver
September 26, 2025

Active tropical cyclones:

  • Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (25W), lost somewhere in the open northern Pacific. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

  • Severe Tropical Storm Bualoi (26W/Opong), located west of Mindoro. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Disturbance A (northeast of Palau): A weak area of low pressure located to the northeast of Palau is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although the low has a fairly well defined circulation center, it is only producing light winds. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development and are expected to become even less favorable for development as the low moves west-northwestward toward Luzon during the next few days, and any development of this system will likely be slow to occur.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

    Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡

  • Disturbance B (southwest of Guam): A low pressure area is likely to form southwest of Guam by the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible as it moves west-northwestward into the Philippine Sea through the end of the week.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% 🟡

  • Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 30% 🟡