WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 9/22/25

Super Typhoon Ragasa poses a serious threat to Hong Kong and Macau by midweek, while Neoguri meanders in the middle of nowhere. Meanwhile, Invest 92W looks to be another tropical threat for the Philippines late this week.

Author

Will Weaver
September 22, 2025

Active tropical cyclones:

  • Super Typhoon Ragasa (24W/Nando), located in the western Luzon Strait. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

  • Typhoon Neoguri (25W), located well southeast of Japan. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Invest 92W (near Yap): An area of low pressure located near Yap State is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scatterometer data indicates the system has a rather broad circulation and is producing relatively light winds. Upper-level winds are not currently conducive for development due to the close proximity of Super Typhoon Ragasa, but they are expected to become somewhat more favorable during the next couple of days. A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form by Wednesday as the system moves west-northwestward and crosses the Visayas. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system, although it appears to be mainly a rainfall threat for the region.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH - 70% 🔴

    Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 90% 🔴

  • Disturbance A (well east of Luzon): Another area of low pressure is forecast to form in the western Philippine Sea this weekend. Any development of this system will likely be slow to occur due to marginally favorable upper-level winds.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% 🟡

    Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡