WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 8/6/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• Tropical Depression 15W, located far northwest of Wake Island. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

• Tropical Depression (98W): A minor tropical depression, 1010 hPa, is located near 18.3°N 148.1°E, well northeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 20 knots. This system does not meet warning criteria. This system - which is a combination of disturbances A and B from the previous Tropical Weather Outlook - is showing some signs of organization with clusters of convection flaring to the south and west of an elongated but increasingly well defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development and this depression could reach warning status by Friday. The system is forecast to move little during the next couple of days before beginning a general westward motion through early next week, before turning west-northwestward.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 96W (east of Luzon): A weak area of low pressure, 1008 hPa, is located off the eastern coasts of Cagayan and Isabela, and has changed little in organization. The actual circulation center for this system is actually further east than indicated on the map, and most of the convection is displaced well to the west of the center by moderate mid- to upper-level shear. This system's already slim development chances will probably end by Saturday as the system moves inland over Luzon. Although it will emerge back over water late Saturday evening or Sunday, upper-level winds are expected to become highly unfavorable for any development. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce areas of heavy rain across much of Luzon during the next couple of days. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡

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