WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 8/5/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• Tropical Depression (97W): A minor tropical depression, 1008 hPa, is located near 26.7°N 158.7°E, well to the northwest of Wake Island. Estimated maximum sustained winds are 25 knots. This system does not meet warning criteria. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area, partially associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression 14W, has increased in organization with a well-defined central dense overcast and improved convective banding. Although the system has a fairly well defined circulation, Oceansat-3 scatterometer data suggests it is only producing winds of about 20 to 25 knots. Although upper-level winds are currently conducive for some additional development, the depression will soon move northeastward into an area of much stronger shear, and it appears unlikely the system will reach warning criteria before then.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 96W (east-northeast of Catanduanes): A weak area of low pressure is located over the Philippine Sea well to the east-northeast of Catanduanes, and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scatterometer data suggests that the system has a very broad circulation that is only producing winds of 10 to 15 knots. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for development, due to the system's large size and level of disorganization, tropical cyclone development appears unlikely. Regardless of whether the system develops or not, it could produce areas of heavy rain across portions of Luzon, the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and Taiwan later this week.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡

• Disturbance A (east of the CNMI): Another low pressure area is forecast to form along a surface trough east of the Northern Mariana Islands later this week. Upper-level winds are likely to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by Friday as the system moves slowly westward, then turns northward well east of the islands.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

• Disturbance B (near the CNMI): A second area of low pressure is expected to form near the northernmost Northern Mariana Islands by the end of the week. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by Sunday or Monday as the system moves generally westward.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠