WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 8/26/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 93W (off the eastern coast of Luzon):

  Shower activity associated with a weak and elongated area of low pressure off the eastern coast of Luzon has changed little in organization during the last 24 hours. In addition, radar data from the Philippines suggests the system's circulation is still poorly defined, and scatterometer data and surface observations indicate the system continues to produce light winds. This system is about to move inland over Luzon, and tropical cyclone formation is unlikely before then. After the system emerges back over water on Thursday, it is expected to merge with another developing low pressure area west of Mindoro. Some gradual development of the resultant system is possible as it moves westward across the South China Sea, and it could become a tropical depression before moving inland over Vietnam late this weekend.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW — 20% 🟡 

• Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM — 50% 🟠 

• Disturbance A (far southeast of Okinawa):

  A large area of disturbed weather located well to the southeast of Okinawa is associated with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Any development of this system is likely to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward and passes east of the Ryukyu Islands through the end of the week.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW — 0% 🟡 

• Formation chance through 7 days: LOW — 10% 🟡 

• Disturbance B (in the Central Pacific): 

  An area of disturbed weather located in the Central Pacific basin south of the Hawaiian Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as it moves through the Central Pacific basin. This system is expected to cross into the Western Pacific basin as a tropical depression or storm on Sunday or Monday, but upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development soon after. For additional information on this system, refer to products from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW — 20% 🟡 

• Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM — 60% 🟠 

• Disturbance C (southeast of Guam): 

  An area of low pressure is forecast to form southeast of Guam by the end of the week. Upper-level winds are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system moves northwestward just west of the Marianas.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW — 0% 🟡 

• Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM — 40% 🟠

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