WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 8/14/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 99W (far northeast of Wake Island): A non-tropical area of low pressure located just inside the Central Pacific basin well to the northeast of Wake Island has been producing convection near its well-defined circulation center for the past couple of days. Although the low is producing gale-force winds, it is currently moving over cooler waters and will soon merge with a larger extratropical low currently located on the other side of the International Date Line. Neither this low nor the low it is merging with is expected to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

• Disturbance A (west of Palawan): A large area of disturbed weather is located in the southern South China Sea off the western coast of Palawan, and is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression by Saturday or Sunday as it moves slowly northward, then turns northwestward toward Vietnam. Interests in Vietnam and on Hainan Island should monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠

• Disturbance B (east of Luzon): An area of low pressure is forecast to form off the eastern coast of Luzon over the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and this system will likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm early next week as the system moves north-northeastward. Interests in Okinawa should monitor the progress of this system. In addition, this system will likely contribute to increased monsoonal rainfall over portions of the Philippines late this weekend through the middle of next week.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 70% 🔴

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