WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 8/11/25

Podul strengthening as it moves toward Taiwan while disturbances on either side of the Philippines could develop late this week. Neither one is a threat to the Philippines.

Author

Will Weaver
August 11, 2025

Active tropical cyclones:

  • Severe Tropical Storm Podul (16W/Gorio), located east-southeast of Taiwan. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Disturbance A (in the Sulu Sea): An area of disturbed weather is located in the Sulu Sea along an active monsoon trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form within this disturbance by midweek as it crosses Palawan into the South China Sea. Although upper-level winds will not be conducive for development by that point, they are expected to become somewhat more favorable by the end of the week, and a tropical depression could form by Friday or Saturday as the system meanders in the South China Sea before turning northwestward.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

    Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠

  • Disturbance B (northeast of Samar): Another area of low pressure is forecast to form in the Philippine Sea northeast of Samar later this week. Environmental conditions will likely be favorable for some gradual development as the system moves slowly northward through this weekend.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% 🟡

    Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 30% 🟡