WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 7/15/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• Tropical Storm 08W, located on the eastern coast of Japan. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 96W (north of Palau): Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located well to the north of Koror remains disorganized. However, scatterometer data indicates that it has a well-defined circulation, though it is only producing winds of 15 to 20 knots at this time. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form on Wednesday or Thursday as the system moves generally west-northwestward. Interests in Taiwan, the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and northern mainland Luzon should monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH - 70% 🔴

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 90% 🔴

• Disturbance A (far south-southeast of Guam): An area of disturbed weather is located well to the south-southeast of Guam. Upper-level winds have become highly unfavorable for any significant development, and development of this system is becoming unlikely. This system is forecast to move generally north-northwestward during the next few days. By late this weekend, upper-level winds could become favorable for some limited development as the system passes near the northern CNMI. 

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 20% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 20% 🟡

• Disturbance B (east of the Eastern Visayas): A monsoonal area of low pressure is forecast to form along the monsoon trough east of the eastern Visayas over the weekend. Some development of this system appears possible as it performs a wide loop to the northeast, then the northwest under the influence of a large tropical cyclone in the western portion of the Philippine Sea (currently 96W). This system could become a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday as it approaches Taiwan.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠

• Disturbance C (south of Pohnpei): An area of low pressure is forecast to form along the ITCZ to the south of Pohnpei early next week. Any development of this system will likely be slow to occur as it moves slowly northwestward.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡