WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 7/14/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 95W (west of the Ogasawara Islands): An area of disturbed weather located just west of the Ogasawara Islands is associated with an area of low pressure embedded within a deep-layer trough extending from Post-Tropical Cyclone Nari. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, a short-lived subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form during the next day or two as the system moves very rapidly north-northeastward. By late Wednesday, the system will move over much colder waters, ending its development chances. 

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

• Disturbance A (formerly Invest 94W, north of Yap): A large area of disturbed weather has persisted along a trough of low pressure located to the north of Yap. As the trough associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Nari lifts out, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Wednesday or Thursday as the system moves generally west-northwestward. Interests in Taiwan, the Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and northern mainland Luzon should monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 80% 🔴

• Disturbance B (south of Chuuk): Another tropical disturbance is located along the western end of the ITCZ, well to the south of Chuuk. This system has a brief window of opportunity for some development as it moves north-northwestward during the next couple of days, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression by midweek before upper-level winds become much less favorable for development. Interests in Guam and the CNMI should monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

• Disturbance C (northwest of Palau): A monsoonal area of low pressure is likely to form northwest of Palau late this week. This system is expected to loop to the northeast, then to the northwest as it interacts with disturbance A. By this weekend, upper-level winds should become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by Sunday before the system stalls out well to the east of Luzon.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% ⚫

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠