WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 7/10/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 91W (east of Okinawa): A weak area of low pressure located about halfway between Okinawa and Iwo Jima is producing limited shower activity. Significant development of this system is unlikely as it is expected to merge with invest 93W during the next couple of days.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0%

  Formation chance through 7 days: VERY LOW - 0%

• Invest 92W (east of Miyakojima): Shower activity associated with a monsoonal area of low pressure located just east of Miyakojima in the Yaeyama Islands has increased somewhat in organization during the past 24 hours. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this system is forecast to meander near the Yaeyama Islands and in the East China Sea during the next couple of days. The system could become a tropical depression over the weekend before turning northeastward toward Japan. Interests in Japan should monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 40%

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 60%

• Invest 93W (northwest of the CNMI): An area of low pressure has formed within a large area of disturbed weather located northwest of the northernmost Northern Mariana Islands, and its associated shower activity is showing signs of organization. Scatterometer data indicates this system is producing winds to near gale force, but it does not yet have a well defined circulation. Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, this system could become a subtropical or tropical depression over the weekend as it moves generally northward. By Tuesday, the system will move over much colder waters, which will end its development chances.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 50%

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 60%

• Remnants of Danas (near Hong Kong): Shower activity associated with a low pressure area near Hong Kong - the remnants of Typhoon Danas - has increased in organization despite the system being centered over land. This system is expected to remain over land during the next couple of days and is not expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone before merging with invest 92W. If the system does move over water, it could have a very brief window of opportunity to regenerate into a tropical cyclone before being absorbed. Regardless, the remnants of Danas are expected to continue producing very heavy rainfall across portions of southeastern China and Taiwan during the next few days, and this rainfall is expected to contribute to potentially catastrophic flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10%

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10%

• Disturbance A (southeast of Yap): A large area of disturbed weather located well southeast of Yap is associated with a trough of low pressure. An area of low pressure is forecast to form along this trough late this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form by Tuesday or Wednesday as the system moves northwestward.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0%

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 70%