WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 7/1/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• Tropical Depression (Invest 90W), located northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands. Refer to tropical cyclone advisories.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 98W (east of Luzon): Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located off the eastern coast of Luzon has increased significantly over the past several hours. In addition, satellite and scatterometer data suggests the low's circulation has become better defined, although most of the convection is displaced to the west of the circulation center. Only a small increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or two as the system meanders east of Luzon before beginning a slow and erratic movement toward the north by Thursday. Interests along the eastern coasts of Luzon and Taiwan, as well as the Yaeyama Islands and Okinawa, should closely monitor the progress of this system.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH - 90%

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - near 100%

• Disturbance A (north of Palawan): A monsoonal area of low pressure located north of Palawan continues to produce a large area of sheared and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only some limited development of this system appears likely during the next day or two before it merges with invest 98W later this week. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of northern and central Luzon during the next couple of days.

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10%

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10%