WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 6/9/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• Tropical Depression (92W): A tropical depression (1004 hPa) is located near 17.0°N 116.0°E, well off the western coast of Luzon. Maximum winds are estimated to be 20 knots. This system does not meet warning criteria. A monsoonal low pressure area has managed not to become absorbed into the large monsoon gyre east of the Philippines, crossed Luzon, and is now over the South China Sea. Scatterometer data indicates that the system's circulation has become better defined, although it is only producing winds of 15 to 20 knots. Upper-level winds are conducive for this system to gradually consolidate as it moves slowly west-northwestward, and it could reach warning criteria by Wednesday. Interests in southern China, including Hong Kong and Macau, should monitor the progress of this system.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Former Invest 93W (east of Luzon): Another monsoonal area of low pressure is located within the western periphery of a large monsoon gyre east of the Philippines, with its center off the eastern coast of Luzon. This system is currently interacting with a TUTT cell positioned to its northeast, which is currently shearing the system, but this interaction will likely become more favorable in a couple of days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week as the system moves north-northwestward and remains off the eastern coast of Luzon. Interests in Taiwan, the Yaeyama Islands, and Okinawa should continue to monitor the progress of this system. This is another example of a system that gets rated at near 100% at some point, only for development chances to decrease - it happens sometimes.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 50%

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 70%