WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 6/7/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 92W (east of Catanduanes): A weak area of low pressure is located along the western periphery of a monsoon gyre east of the Philippines, and is producing limited shower activity. In addition, its circulation has become poorly defined. This system is forecast to become absorbed into the larger circulation of invest area 93W by Monday, and it is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0%

  Formation chance through 7 days: VERY LOW - 0%

• Invest 93W (north-northwest of Palau): A large area of disturbed weather located north-northwest of Palau is associated with a monsoonal area of low pressure. Shower activity associated with this low has increased in coverage and organization, but its circulation remains quite broad. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Monday or Tuesday as the system moves generally northwestward. Interests in eastern Taiwan, the Yaeyama Islands, and Okinawa should monitor the progress of this system. In addition, this system will likely bring enhanced monsoonal rainfall to much of the Philippines through the middle of next week, and this rainfall could cause severe flooding. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 60%

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - near 100%

• Disturbance A (northeast of Wake Island): A non-tropical area of low pressure located northeast of Wake Island is producing scattered showers and winds to near gale force. Although upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development, any development of this system will likely be slow to occur due to marginally warm SSTs and dry air. The system is moving generally west-southwestward, and environmental conditions will become less conducive for development by midweek.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10%

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10%

• Disturbance B (west of Palawan): A monsoonal area of low pressure has formed off the western coast of Palawan and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development, they are forecast to become somewhat more favorable later this weekend. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form by Monday or Tuesday before land interaction and stronger upper-level winds end the system's development chances.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 30%

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 50%