WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 6/6/25

Active tropical cyclones:

• There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 92W (east of Samar Island): A large monsoon gyre has formed in the western portion of the Philippine Sea, and an area of low pressure is embedded within the western periphery of this gyre. Scatterometer data suggests it has a fairly well defined circulation, but its associated shower activity is limited. This particular area of low pressure will likely not develop into a tropical cyclone, as it should move east-northeastward and become absorbed into a new, larger low forming further east (invest area 93W). 
  Formation chance through 7 days: VERY LOW - 0%

• Invest 93W (near Yap): A broad area of low pressure is forming along the eastern periphery of the monsoon gyre mentioned above. Scatterometer data suggests its circulation is gradually becoming better defined, although it remains quite elongated. In addition, its associated shower activity is rather disorganized. The scatterometer data suggests a rather broad swath of 15 to 20 knot winds associated with the monsoon gyre. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for this system to coalesce during the next couple of days. A tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend as the system moves northwestward, absorbing invest area 92W in the process. Interests in Taiwan, the Yaeyama Islands, and Okinawa should monitor the progress of this system. Also, this system is expected to enhance monsoonal rainfall across the Philippines during the next several days - for additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.
  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - near 100%

• Disturbance A (northeast of Wake Island): A non-tropical area of low pressure is located in the far eastern portion of the basin to the northeast of Wake Island. Although it is producing minimal shower activity, it has a well defined circulation and is producing winds of 25 to 30 knots. Environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for development, and development - if any - is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west-southwestward during the next few days. By Monday, upper-level winds will become even less conducive for development.
  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10%

• Disturbance B (west of Palawan): A monsoonal area of low pressure is forecast to form off the western coast of Palawan over the weekend. Although upper-level winds are not likely to be particularly favorable for development, some development is possible and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form by Monday or Tuesday. By Wednesday, however, increasing upper-level winds associated with the tropical cyclone invest 93W is forecast to become and interaction with Luzon should end its development chances.
  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40%