WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 6/17/25

Western Pacific is quiet right now. A broad low in the subtropical Pacific has a low chance of development, while another monsoonal system could form near the Philippines

Author

Will Weaver
June 17, 2025

Active tropical cyclones:

  • There are no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Disturbance A (east-northeast of Iwo Jima): A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the subtropical Pacific east-northeast of Iwo Jima is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. This low will be moving west-southwestward into a somewhat more favorable environment, and some gradual development is possible as it moves toward the Ryukyu Islands by this weekend.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10%

    Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 30%

  • Disturbance B (west of Manila Bay): A new low pressure area is forecast to form along the monsoon trough by the end of the week. Upper-level winds will likely be marginally favorable for some slow development as this system moves northwestward into the South China Sea through the weekend.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0%

    Formation chance through 7 days - LOW - 20%