WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 3/6/26

Current tropical cyclones:

• There are no active tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 95W (south-southwest of Guam): A large and sprawling area of disturbed weather located south-southwest of Guam and southeast of Yap is associated with a very broad, monsoon-like area of low pressure. Although the low's associated shower activity is not particularly well organized, scatterometer data indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined, although its associated winds are only about 15 to 20 knots. Environmental conditions are currently marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form over the weekend as the system moves slowly and erratically north-northwestward, then turns northeastward and passes close to Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds and very dry air should end any development chances. Interests in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it could produce heavy rainfall and isolated flooding during the next few days.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 60% 🟠

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 60% 🟠

• Disturbance A (Mindanao): An area of low pressure is forecast to form along a near-equatorial trough over the southeastern coast of Mindanao by the middle of next week. Any development of this system will likely be slow to occur as the low moves in an unusual east-northeastward direction through the end of the week.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: VERY LOW - 0% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 10% 🟡