WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 2/2/26

Current tropical cyclones:

• There are no active tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 94W (east-southeast of Yap): A large, sprawling area of disturbed weather located to the east-southeast of Yap is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, but they are expected to become slightly more conducive as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression will likely form near Palau on Wednesday or Thursday. As the system approaches the Philippines by the end of the week, upper-level winds are expected to become much less conducive for development, and further development will become unlikely. However, the system will likely produce areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the country this weekend.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 50% 🟠

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 70% 🔴

• Disturbance A (south of Pohnpei): An ongoing westerly wind burst event within the equatorial Pacific is triggering the formation of an area of low pressure just to the south of Pohnpei. Upper-level winds are expected to be at least marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week as the system moves west-northwestward and passes south of Chuuk. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become highly unfavorable for further development.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

  Formation chance through 7 days: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

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