WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook: 11/20/25

There are currently no tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

• Invest 95B (over the Malay Peninsula): The area of low pressure previously in the Gulf of Thailand is now located over the Malay Peninsula. This system could become a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal over the weekend, which is why it has a Bay of Bengal invest number. For additional information on this system, refer to products from the India Meteorological Department (RSMC New Delhi) or your local weather office.

• Disturbance A (south of Guam): A large area of disturbed weather located well to the south of Guam is associated with a tropical wave moving along the ITCZ. This system is likely to close off into an area of low pressure over the weekend as it moves into the Philippine Sea. Environmental conditions will be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Monday as the system passes between Yap State and Palau. Interests in the Philippines should monitor the progress of this system, although it should be noted that upper-level winds are expected to become extremely hostile for development as the system moves over the Philippines by the middle of next week.

  Formation chance through 48 hours: MEDIUM - 40% 🟠

  Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 70% 🔴

Non-tropical marine warnings (south of 30°N):

• Gale warning: The South China Sea north of 15°N and not including the Gulf of Tonkin, including Hong Kong and Macau offshore waters, as well as the Taiwan and Luzon Straits are under a gale warning. Strong northeasterly monsoon flow associated with a 1030 hPa high located near 30°N 116°E is affecting the area. Expect NE winds of 30 to 35 kts during the next 24 hours. Winds may increase to 35 to 40 kts in the Taiwan Strait and off the NW Luzon coast starting at 0000 UTC 11/22/25.