WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 1/13/26

Invest 91W will likely become the first Western Pacific tropical cyclone of 2026 near the Philippines, while another area of low pressure in Western Micronesia could develop later this week.

Author

Will Weaver
January 13, 2026

1/13/26 surface analysis - click to enlarge

Current tropical cyclones:

  • There are no active tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Invest 91W (near Palau): Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure located just southwest of Koror has increased in organization during the past 24 hours. In addition, scatterometer data indicates the low's circulation is gradually becoming better defined, although it remains sharply elongated. Only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to move slowly northwestward, then turn north just east of the Philippines by the end of the week. By late this weekend, upper-level winds are expected to become much less favorable for development. Although the system is not likely to make landfall anywhere, it is expected to pose a widespread heavy rainfall threat for much of the Philippines, as well as Yap and Palau through the beginning of next week.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH - 90% 🔴

    Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - near 100% 🔴 

  • Disturbance A (southeast of Pohnpei): The ongoing westerly wind burst event has resulted in the formation of a weak area of low pressure to the southeast of Pohnpei. Upper-level winds are expected to be conducive for some gradual development as this system moves generally westward. By late this weekend, however, increasing upper-level winds and decreasing mid-level humidity should limit any further development.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: LOW - 10% 🟡

    Formation chance through 7 days: LOW - 30% 🟡

Non-tropical marine warnings (south of 30°N):

  • None at this time.

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