WPAC Tropical Weather Outlook - 1/12/26

We have Invest 91W, and an early season tropical depression appears likely to form near the Philippines by the middle of the week and could be a messy rainfall threat this weekend.

Author

Will Weaver
January 12, 2026

1/12/26 surface analysis - click to enlarge

Current tropical cyclones:

  • There are no active tropical cyclones.

Disturbances/invest areas:

  • Invest 91W (southeast of Palau): A westerly wind burst (WWB) event across the equatorial Pacific has resulted in the formation of a broad low pressure area located to the southeast of Koror. Although the system's associated shower activity is not well organized and upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for development, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable by midweek, and the WWB will likely result in the low becoming better defined. As a result, a tropical depression is likely to form by Wednesday as the system moves generally northwestward. By this weekend, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development. Interests in the Philippines, Palau, and Yap should monitor the progress of this system as even if it does not make landfall, it could result in a significant rainfall threat across much of the region.

    Formation chance through 48 hours: HIGH - 80% 🔴

    Formation chance through 7 days: HIGH - 80% 🔴

Non-tropical marine warnings (south of 30°N):

  • None at this time.

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