Welcome to Will Weaver's Weather

Welcome to my new blog…newsletter…thing. Here I will be discussing weather (well, of course), focusing primarily on the Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin (from east Asia to 180 degrees longitude) but also occasionally covering other regions, such as the Atlantic or severe weather outbreaks in the United States. This is designed to be a companion to the Pacific Typhoon Season group on Facebook and will contain features posted there, with occasional additional information. Products include the tropical weather outlook and tropical cyclone advisory, as well as posts about ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) and climatology.

The tropical weather outlook is a general synopsis of tropical cyclones (TCs), designated disturbances (also known as invest areas), and other areas of interest that have the potential to become tropical cyclones. It is a personally-written analysis but draws from the following sources:

• Himawari-9 satellite imagery (generally the SLIDER product from CIRA/RAMMB)

• GFS and ECMWF operational and ensemble models (available from Tropical Tidbits, CyclonicWX, and elsewhere)

• Florida State University’s experimental TC genesis product

• Surface analyses from the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Weather Service

The outlook is basically a weather map showing current synoptic features and areas of interest. There’s an example at the top of the page. Here is a key to the symbols that appear on it:

Areas of interest are given categories based on their development potential during the next 7 days: 0% is VERY LOW, 10 to 30% is LOW, 40 to 60% is MEDIUM, and 70 to 100% is HIGH. However, these are rough estimates based on model projections, and there have been cases where systems given a near 100% development potential have failed to develop.

The tropical cyclone advisory is a summary of current information for an active tropical cyclone, based on current JTWC and JMA information, as well as other products such as intensity estimates (various agencies’ estimates using the Dvorak technique, automated intensity estimates from agencies such as CIMSS, SAR velocity data, etc.). It also summarizes current watches and warnings, as well as a 24-hour development trend. Most advisories will also include a technical discussion that provides more detailed information on the TC’s current status and its various forecasts. Here’s an example:

I need to emphasize that I am not a meteorologist - I am a weather enthusiast - and none of these products are designed to be authoritative, but they are meant to present official information in an easier to read and understand format. For official information, you should refer to your local weather office:

• PAGASA (Philippines)

• Hong Kong Observatory

• Central Weather Administration (Taiwan)

• China Meteorological Administration (PRC)

• Japan Meteorological Agency

• Korea Meteorological Administration (South Korea)

• Kadena Air Base Shogun Weather (Okinawa)

• U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (U.S. military interests)

• U.S. National Weather Service in Guam

One last thing before we get to the actual outlook - this blog/newsletter/whatever is completely apolitical. I believe weather should not be politicized and do not endorse any political positions whatsoever, and internationally-recognized names for landmasses and bodies of water will be used. For example:

• “Gulf of Mexico” instead of “Gulf of America”

• “South China Sea” instead of “West Philippine Sea”

• “Sea of Japan” instead of “East Sea.”

• Any products emphasizing political claims such as the “nine-dash line” will be edited to remove those claims.

I hope you find this information useful!