Typhoon Wutip (01W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9, 0000 UTC 6/14/25

…Wutip becomes a typhoon as it crosses the Gulf of Tonkin…

Current storm information:

• Position: 20.2°N 108.8°E

• Movement: NNE at 6 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity [1-min]: 65 knots (120 km/h) [Category 1]

• Intensity [10-min]: 60 knots (110 km/h)

• Central pressure: 979 hPa

Trend:

• Some slight additional strengthening is possible before Wutip makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 3 storm signal is active for Macau for the possibility of near-gale winds.

• The No. 1 standby signal is active for Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• Heavy rainfall over Vietnam and Laos should gradually subside during the next 12 to 24 hours. Meanwhile, heavy rain and destructive winds are possible over portions of western Hainan Island and southern China, including the Leizhou Peninsula, today. These conditions will likely affect Macau and Hong Kong by Saturday evening or Sunday. Since Wutip will be relatively slow-moving, this rainfall is likely to cause widespread severe flooding. For further information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Wutip really got its act together in a rather short amount of time. Although the tropical cyclone still sports a rather ragged appearance with a highly fragmented CDO containing dry air intrusions, the inner core structure of Wutip has improved markedly since the previous advisory. Radar and satellite imagery indicates that a nearly complete eyewall has developed around a very tiny and cloud-filled eye, which has become much better defined during the past few hours. Dvorak estimates from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD are generally T4.0 to T4.5. Even though the Dvorak technique tends to be limited in tropical cyclones located very close to land, even taking a lower blend of these values yields an intensity of 65 kts, making Wutip a typhoon. (JMA is still calling it a severe tropical storm.)

Wutip only has a few more hours left over water, but they may be fairly consequential. Although dry air continues to be an inhibiting factor, the shear has decreased significantly, and the CIMSS AI-RI rapid intensification tool shows a 26% chance of an increase of 25 knots in the next 24 hours. Therefore, it is likely that Wutip will be at a higher intensity at landfall than the forecast shows since Wutip will be inland at the 12 hour forecast point. After landfall, Wutip should accelerate toward the east-northeast and decay into a trough by Sunday as it merges with a frontal zone. It should be noted that some of the model guidance suggests that Wutip’s circulation could survive long enough to emerge over the East China Sea on Monday, but if it does, it will likely have become post-tropical by then.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 20.2°N 108.8°E – 65 kts

• 12 hrs: 22.1°N 110.6°E – 45 kts inland

• 24 hrs: 24.2°N 112.3°E – 35 kts inland

• 48 hrs: Dissipated