Typhoon Sinlaku (04W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 1200 UTC 14 April 2026

Eye of extremely dangerous Sinlaku passing directly over Tinian and Saipan. Extreme wind warning issued for those islands. This is a particularly dangerous situation!

Author

Will Weaver
April 14, 2026

…Eye of extremely dangerous Sinlaku passing directly over Tinian and Saipan…
…Extreme wind warning issued for those islands…
…This is a particularly dangerous situation…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 14.9°N 145.8°E

  • Movement: NW at 5 knots (10 km/h)

  • Intensity: 125 knots (230 km/h)

  • Intensity category: 4

  • Central pressure: 930 hPa

Trend:

  • A slow weakening trend is expected during the next 24 hours.

Radar image (CyclonicWx)

Watches and warnings:

  • Typhoon warning (NWS) - Rota, Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan in the CNMI

  • Extreme wind warning (NWS) - Tinian and Saipan in the CNMI

  • Tropical storm warning (NWS) - Guam; Pagan and Alamagan in the CNMI

  • TCCOR 1 - Guam

Areas that should monitor this system:

  • Guam

  • Rota, Tinian, Saipan, Pagan, Alamagan, and Agrihan in the CNMI

Hazards affecting land:

  • Potentially catastrophic damaging winds and heavy rain are occurring over Tinian and Saipan. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation! Remain in a safe place until an all clear is given and avoid travel at all costs unless absolutely necessary to protect your life - venturing outdoors could result in certain death! An extreme wind warning is in effect for Tinian and Saipan as sustained winds of 100 kts (115 mph) are expected during the next 24 hours or so. Refer to products from your local weather office for further information.

  • Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring in Rota and Guam and will continue for the next day or so.

  • Information for U.S. military interests can be found at the Stars & Stripes Pacific Storm Tracker, located here: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/storm_tracker/ 

Discussion:

Sinlaku is finally in the midst of its much-anticipated eyewall replacement cycle, and satellite and radar imagery are, in a word, terrifying. The much larger outer eyewall currently encompasses both Tinian and Saipan, with radar echoes indicating the presence of the remnants of the inner eyewall moving over those islands. The typhoon’s satellite presentation has degraded somewhat due to the ongoing eyewall replacement as well as slightly cooler SSTs, as cloud tops across the CDO have warmed quite a bit during the past few hours and some dry air has worked its way into the northwestern quadrant. Despite this, Sinlaku continues to sport impressive radial outflow that is fighting off the bulk of the dry air positioned to the west. Weather stations in the islands are reporting rather extreme observations:

  • Saipan International Airport reported a pressure of 939 hPa at 1055 UTC before the station suffered a partial failure. At 1154 UTC the station reported a wind gust of 115 kts (130 mph). 

  • Another weather station on Saipan recently reported a pressure of 949 hPa.

89GHz microwave satellite image (RAMMB/CIRA)

Given the slightly degraded satellite presentation, estimates of Sinlaku’s intensity have come down. Dvorak estimates range from T6.0 to T6.5 with ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 119 and 126 kts; the intensity is lowered to 125 kts, which could be a bit generous.

Sinlaku is currently passing over Tinian and Saipan at a very slow speed - an upper-level trough to the north has created a col region between two competing subtropical ridges. This is not good news for those islands as this means dangerous conditions will persist for some time. The trough is forecast to amplify during the next day or two, and this will result in Sinlaku accelerating northward just to the west of the Marianas beginning on Wednesday evening. As Sinlaku gains latitude, it should move over progressively cooler SSTs, and these combined with the ongoing eyewall replacement should result in steady weakening through Friday evening. By Saturday, Sinlaku should move over waters cooler than 26°C as it passes north of the northernmost Mariana Islands and also encounters strong southwesterly shear, and this should lead to a much faster rate of weakening as it accelerates northeastward over the North Pacific. 

Although the forecast currently shows Sinlaku as a post-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period, an alternate scenario that more of the models are latching onto is that the trough leaves Sinlaku behind to meander over cold waters. If this were to happen, it would probably remain a tropical cyclone longer, albeit a rapidly weakening one. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds (1-min)

  • 000 hrs: 14.9°N 145.8°E – 125 kts 230 km/h 

  • 012 hrs: 15.3°N 145.0°E – 120 kts 220 km/h 

  • 024 hrs: 16.5°N 144.7°E – 110 kts 205 km/h 

  • 048 hrs: 19.0°N 144.8°E – 90 kts 165 km/h 

  • 072 hrs: 21.7°N 146.7°E – 70 kts 130 km/h 

  • 096 hrs: 25.2°N 149.0°E – 60 kts 110 km/h 

  • 120 hrs: 28.8°N 155.6°E – 50 kts 95 km/h POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL

Forecast map