Typhoon Ragasa (24W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14: 0000 UTC 24 September 2025

Ragasa passing to the south of Macau and hanging onto Category 4 strength. Extremely dangerous and life-threatening conditions continuing in Hong Kong and Macau.

Author

Will Weaver
September 23, 2025

…Ragasa passing to the south of Macau and hanging onto Category 4 strength… …Extremely dangerous and life-threatening conditions continuing in Hong Kong and Macau…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.3°N 113.7°E

  • Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 115 knots (215 km/h) [Category 4] 

  • Central pressure: 925 hPa

Trend:

  • Gradual weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • No. 10 Hurricane Signal (HKO/SMG): Hong Kong and Macau.

  • All tropical cyclone wind signals for the Philippines have been dropped.

Hazards affecting land:

  • None.Extremely dangerous and life-threatening typhoon conditions are occurring along the southern coast of China, including in Hong Kong and Macau. Destructive winds, heavy rain, and heavy surf and storm surge flooding are currently occurring and will likely persist through tonight. 

  • Interests in the Leizhou Peninsula and northern Vietnam should monitor the progress of Ragasa.

Discussion:

Radar image (HKO)

Ragasa appears to be undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle. A very substantial moat of dry air has formed around the inner eyewall, and this is fairly easy to notice on both HKO radar imagery and microwave satellite imagery. The microwave satellite image also suggests the inner eyewall’s convection is lopsided with stronger convection in the western eyewall, which may be an indication of increasing shear in addition to some feathering of the convection within the poleward outflow band. Outside the eyewall, convection within the CDO remains quite strong and has actually increased somewhat in coverage, likely due to Ragasa’s continued impressive outflow. Although the range of Dvorak fixes has dropped to T5.5 to T6.0, automated CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates range from 110 to 124 kts, and a RCM-3 SAR pass from earlier indicated the winds were still around 125 kts. Assuming some weakening, the intensity remains 115 kts.

Ragasa is in the process of being handed off from a subtropical ridge positioned over the East China Sea to another one positioned over southern China, and it is likely to continue moving almost due west during the next couple of days. On this track, Ragasa’s eye will likely move inland east of the Leizhou Peninsula late Wednesday night and skirt the coast, passing over the peninsula early Thursday. Steady weakening is expected to begin at that point due to land interaction, and Ragasa will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday and dissipate over northern Vietnam on Friday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.3°N 113.7°E – 115 kts

  • 12 hrs: 21.4°N 111.4°E – 100 kts on the coast

  • 24 hrs: 21.6°N 108.8°E – 50 kts on the coast

  • 48 hrs: 21.2°N 103.6°E – 25 kts inland

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map