Typhoon Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 0000 UTC 10 August 2025

…Podul becomes a typhoon…

Current storm information:

• Position: 22.1°N 138.5°E

• Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 65 knots (120 km/h) [Cat 1]

• Central pressure: 985 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Although Podul remains a sheared system, indications are that it has strengthened. The compact cyclone’s low-level center remains partially exposed along the northern edge of a rather robust overcast with extremely cold cloud tops. Even though the system is sharply vertically tilted to the south by moderate shear, this convective mass is continuing to display some structure, with microwave satellite imagery indicating the presence of a mid-level eye feature. Despite its appearance, Podul is earning Dvorak estimates of T4.0 from all the agencies, and a recent RCM-3 SAR pass found winds of 79 kts southwest of the center. Even accounting for likely rain/ice inflation, this is good enough to increase the intensity to 65 kts, making Podul a typhoon. Not a pretty typhoon, but a typhoon nonetheless. The position estimate differs from the JMA estimate as they seem to have the center in the wrong place.

The models seem to be struggling with how strong the ridge will be late in the forecast, and this has led to a slight southward nudge in the forecast track beyond the 72 hour mark. Podul remains embedded within strong easterly flow associated with a series of high pressure areas to the north, and the typhoon should continue on an almost due west trajectory through Tuesday. There remains a great deal of spread among the intensity models as Podul will be more or less on the edge of a more favorable environment to the south. The current forecast indicates little or no change in strength during the next couple of days due to persistent shear. However, it shows more strengthening than the previous one late in the period as Podul should move into an area of less shear as it turns west-northwestward on Tuesday, and there is a possibility of rapid intensification at that point before Podul passes near or over northern Taiwan late Wednesday into Thursday. Podul should move over eastern China late Thursday and rapidly dissipate as it pushes inland.

Once again, this is a low-confidence intensity forecast, but a medium- to high-confidence track forecast.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 22.1°N 138.5°E – 65 kts

• 12 hrs: 22.5°N 135.9°E – 65 kts 

• 24 hrs: 22.5°N 133.3°E – 70 kts 

• 48 hrs: 23.1°N 128.2°E – 85 kts 

• 72 hrs: 24.2°N 123.5°E – 95 kts

• 96 hrs: 27.4°N 119.3°E – 40 kts inland

• 120 hrs: Dissipated