Typhoon Podul (16W/Gorio) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13: 0000 UTC 13 August 2025

Podul continues to rapidly intensify as it passes over Orchid Island, likely to reach Category 3 status before landfall.

Author

Will Weaver
August 12, 2025

…Podul continues to rapidly intensify as it passes over Orchid Island… …Likely to reach Category 3 status before landfall…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 22.0°N 121.8°E

  • Movement: WNW at 15 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 90 knots (165 km/h) [Cat 2]

  • Central pressure: 964 hPa

Trend:

  • Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next few hours before Podul makes landfall, with rapid weakening forecast thereafter. Podul is likely to reach Category 3 strength just before landfall.

Watches and warnings:

  • Typhoon warning (CWA): All of Taiwan except for Keelung, Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Kinmen County, Yilan County and Lienchiang County

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Itbayat in the Batanes Islands

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): The rest of the Batanes Islands

Hazards affecting land:

  • Podul is expected to cause dangerous destructive winds and very heavy rainfall in much of eastern Taiwan beginning this afternoon. Storm total rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible, especially in the southeastern portion of Taiwan near the mountains. This rainfall will very likely cause dangerous flash flooding and landslides. The heavy rainfall threat will spread over eastern China on Thursday afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For additional information, including possible additional warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

F-18 SSMIS 91GHz microwave satellite image (RAMMB/CIRA)

Podul is continuing to rapidly intensify as it approaches the eastern coast of Taiwan. The eye is currently located almost directly over Orchid Island. Although it is cloud-filled on satellite imagery, radar data from CWA depicts a well-defined eye with extremely intense convection within the eyewall. This eye is completely closed, with SSMIS microwave imagery indicating a band of intense convection within the western eyewall. The weather station at Lanyu on Orchid Island recently reported a pressure of 971 hPa with wind gusts as high as 90 kts. Podul’s outflow has continued to expand in all quadrants, though the poleward outflow is more restricted than the equatorward outflow due to the very dry air mass positioned to the north. The current intensity is a potentially conservative 90 kts, based on consensus T5.0 Dvorak fixes.

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx)

Landfall is about 6 to 8 hours away. Given Podul’s very compact inner core, land interaction will probably not come into play until shortly before landfall. Because of this, Podul is likely to intensify some more until then, and it will likely reach Category 3 intensity by that point. Once Podul makes landfall, it is expected to weaken very rapidly as the small circulation interacts with Taiwan’s central mountain range. The mountains may deflect Podul slightly to the south as it passes over the island, but an overall west-northwestward motion is still expected. Podul should move over the Taiwan Strait late Wednesday night - although conditions should remain favorable, Podul will likely be too disrupted to take advantage, and it will likely continue weakening up until its final landfall in eastern China on Thursday. The cyclone should dissipate inland soon after.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 22.0°N 121.8°E – 90 kts

  • 06 hrs: 22.5°N 120.9°E – 105 kts on the coast

  • 12 hrs: 23.1°N 118.8°E – 65 kts in the Taiwan Strait

  • 24 hrs: 24.3°N 115.5°E – 35 kts inland

  • 48 hrs: 25.6°N 112.2°E – 25 kts inland

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map