Typhoon Podul (16W/Gorio) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12: 1500 UTC 12 August 2025

Podul rapidly intensifying as it approaches Taiwan, typhoon warnings issued for much of Taiwan

Author

Will Weaver
August 12, 2025

…Podul rapidly intensifying as it approaches Taiwan… …Typhoon warnings issued for much of Taiwan…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.8°N 124.2°E

  • Movement: WNW at 14 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 80 knots (150 km/h) [Cat 1]

  • Central pressure: 970 hPa

Trend:

  • Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Podul could become a Category 3 typhoon before it makes landfall.

Watches and warnings:

  • Typhoon warning (CWA): All of Taiwan except for Keelung, Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Kinmen County, Yilan County and Lienchiang County

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Batanes Islands

Hazards affecting land:

  • Podul is expected to cause dangerous destructive winds and very heavy rainfall in much of eastern Taiwan beginning on Wednesday afternoon. Storm total rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible, especially in the southeastern portion of Taiwan near the mountains. This rainfall will very likely cause dangerous flash flooding and landslides. The heavy rainfall threat will spread over eastern China on Thursday afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For additional information, including possible additional warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

METOP-B MHS 89 GHz microwave satellite image, showing a mostly complete eyewall (RAMMB/CIRA)

As predicted by some of the models a couple of days ago, Podul is now undergoing rapid intensification. This is the result of a sharp decrease in the shear that has been impacting it as Podul moves under a weaker portion of the ridge to its north. Convection has rapidly rebuilt over the circulation center and an eye is intermittently visible on satellite imagery, although microwave satellite imagery and radar data from JMA and CWA suggest the eyewall is not completely closed. Podul’s outflow is restricted in the poleward direction but has expanded equatorward, which is also helping sustain the convection in the face of very dry air to the north. The intensity is increased to a potentially conservative 80 kts, which is still ahead of a blend of T4.0 to T4.5 Dvorak fixes from the various agencies. 

Composite radar image, showing that the eyewall is not completely closed (CyclonicWx)

Although Podul has less than 24 hours before it makes landfall, it appears likely to continue strengthening rapidly given the much more favorable environment it has found itself in. SSTs are extremely warm (30-31°C) and shear is low, and the only negative factor is the aforementioned dry air to the north. CIMSS upper-level wind analysis suggests that Podul has developed an upper-level anticyclone over itself which is pushing back against this dry air, so that should not be much of an inhibiting factor. Podul is forecast to peak as a Category 3 typhoon just before making landfall on Wednesday afternoon - the numbers given below are higher than the JTWC and JMA forecasts. After landfall, Podul should be shredded by the mountainous terrain of Taiwan and weaken very rapidly, emerging over the Taiwan Strait as a tropical storm and making landfall in eastern China on Thursday. Podul should dissipate fairly soon after making landfall.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.8°N 124.2°E – 80 kts

  • 12 hrs: 22.4°N 121.9°E – 95 kts

  • 18 hrs: 22.8°N 121.0°E – 105 kts on the coast

  • 24 hrs: 23.6°N 118.9°E – 55 kts in the Taiwan Strait

  • 48 hrs: 25.6°N 111.8°E – 30 kts inland

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map