Typhoon Neoguri (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 0000 UTC 21 September 2025

…Neoguri becomes a Category 4 typhoon and could become a Category 5 super typhoon later today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 27.3°N 152.7°E

• Movement: WNW at 11 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 125 knots (230 km/h) [Category 4]

• Central pressure: 928 hPa

Trend:

• Additional intensification is expected during the next 24 hours, and Neoguri could become a Category 5 super typhoon later today.

Discussion:

Neoguri has continued to explosively intensify during the past 24 hours, and considering where it is, it is an extremely impressive tropical cyclone. Neoguri remains a fairly compact system, but it is an almost textbook tropical cyclone with an almost perfectly symmetric central dense overcast surrounding a large, clear, and well-defined eye. Microwave satellite imagery shows an almost annular structure. Cloud tops within the CDO have warmed slightly during the past few hours. Dvorak estimates are a consensus T6.5, with CIMSS ADT, D-PRINT, and SATCON estimates ranging from 122 to 130 kts. The intensity is increased to 125 kts, just shy of super typhoon status.

The track forecast is difficult because the steering regime is about to get complicated. Neoguri is currently in the process of turning northwestward as a frontal system approaches and erodes the subtropical ridge. This front will continue to enhance Neoguri’s outflow, and the environment is otherwise favorable for continued strengthening, and Neoguri has an opportunity to briefly attain Category 5 status later tonight or on Monday. Shortly after, Neoguri is expected to stall as the front leaves it behind - a consequence of its small size. Once the front leaves Neoguri behind, it is expected to meander in the north Pacific through the end of the forecast period. Steady weakening is expected as Neoguri upwells colder waters from below the surface and encounters increased shear, and Neoguri will likely move very slowly and erratically northward and northeastward. Some model guidance continues to suggest that Neoguri will resume a westward motion late in the forecast period, which would also enable some restrengthening and possibly allow it to become a land threat. Needless to say, the forecast is of fairly low confidence at this time.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 27.3°N 152.7°E – 125 kts

• 12 hrs: 28.3°N 151.3°E – 135 kts

• 24 hrs: 29.5°N 150.9°E – 140 kts

• 48 hrs: 30.3°N 151.3°E – 125 kts

• 72 hrs: 30.9°N 152.2°E – 100 kts

• 96 hrs: 31.5°N 152.3°E – 80 kts

• 120 hrs: 32.1°N 152.1°E – 65 kts