Typhoon Neoguri (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21: 0000 UTC 28 September 2025

…Neoguri rapidly intensifying and expected to become an extremely powerful hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone over the northern Pacific later today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 34.3°N 162.4°E

• Movement: ENE at 14 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 95 knots (175 km/h) [Category 2]

• Central pressure: 956 hPa

Trend:

• Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Neoguri will likely become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone tonight. Rapid weakening is forecast once extratropical transition is complete.

Discussion:

Despite being in an unusual location and embedded within a deep-layer trough associated with an approaching frontal system, Neoguri is undergoing rapid intensification. The cyclone has very quickly cleared out a small and very warm eye with a stadium effect present on visible satellite imagery, and the CDO’s cloud tops remain quite cold, although the effects of west-southwesterly shear are evident with some very high clouds being sheared off the top of the CDO. It appears that Neoguri’s fast forward motion may be blunting the effects of the shear. Dvorak estimates range from T5.0 to T5.5 from the various agencies, with CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 99 and 96 kts respectively. Taking a blend of these estimates yields an intensity of 95 kts.

Neoguri is expected to continue to move in phase with the shear for the next day or so, and it is possible that it could reattain Category 3 intensity while it remains over warm waters. By tonight, however, Neoguri should cross the 26°C isotherm, which will likely mark the end of any strengthening through barotropic (your typical, tropical) means. Neoguri should quickly transition into an exceptionally powerful hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone shortly after. By Monday, Neoguri will likely begin weakening rapidly as it loses its baroclinic support, although it will likely remain a distinct entity and retain near-gale to gale-force winds through the end of the 5-day forecast period. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 34.3°N 162.4°E – 95 kts

• 012 hrs: 38.1°N 167.0°E – 100 kts

• 024 hrs: 42.1°N 172.2°E – 90 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 048 hrs: 44.6°N 177.5°W – 65 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 072 hrs: 48.3°N 166.3°W – 30 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 096 hrs: 53.6°N 157.9°W – 30 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 120 hrs: 59.8°N 145.9°W – 40 kts Post-tropical/extratropical