Typhoon Neoguri (#25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12: 1200 UTC 23 September 2025

…Neoguri remains parked over the northern Pacific…

Current storm information:

• Position: 30.4°N 153.6°E

• Movement: Nearly stationary

• Intensity: 75 knots (140 km/h) [Category 1]

• Central pressure: 970 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Neoguri continues to go nowhere fast as it remains embedded in an area of almost nonexistent steering currents. The tropical cyclone continues to have a not-very-tropical satellite presentation with convection sheared to the north and east of the circulation center and cool, dry air wrapping into the center from the south and west. Microwave satellite imagery also depicts a less than tropical appearance with a highly asymmetric convective structure and no signs of an eye feature. Although automated estimates are not particularly kind to Neoguri and are well below typhoon strength, the intensity is currently 75 kts, based on Dvorak fixes of T4.5 and a RCM-3 SAR pass that found winds of 70 to 75 kts in the northeastern quadrant.

Neoguri is currently meandering over the northern Pacific and will continue to do so for another couple of days as the frontal system to its north leaves it behind. Ridging should build in behind the front and force Neoguri back westward before a second frontal system approaches on Friday. This second front should finally pick up Neoguri and send it off to the northeast. Neoguri should rapidly become a post-tropical cyclone this weekend.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 30.4°N 153.6°E – 75 kts

• 12 hrs: 30.5°N 155.0°E – 65 kts

• 24 hrs: 31.8°N 156.8°E – 55 kts

• 48 hrs: 32.2°N 154.6°E – 50 kts

• 72 hrs: 31.6°N 152.6°E – 50 kts

• 96 hrs: 32.7°N 156.1°E – 50 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 120 hrs: 37.5°N 163.3°E – 45 kts Post-tropical/extratropical