Typhoon Neoguri (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1200 UTC 22 September 2025

…Neoguri weakening rapidly as it meanders over the open north Pacific…

Current storm information:

• Position: 30.5°N 152.3°E

• Movement: ENE at 6 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity: 90 knots (165 km/h) [Category 2]

• Central pressure: 962 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Neoguri looks decidedly less tropical tonight. The typhoon is currently interacting with a frontal system passing to the north, and this has resulted in a dramatic increase in southwesterly shear over the system. Although the eye structure is still mostly intact, most of the convection is displaced to the north and east of the circulation center, with the poleward outflow channel resembling a warm front. However, there does not seem to be any frontogenesis occurring elsewhere within the system, and scatterometer data suggests the wind field remains somewhat symmetrical, so Neoguri is still a tropical cyclone. The intensity is lowered to a potentially generous 90 kts, based on Dvorak estimates ranging from T4.5 to T5.5 and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 79 and 92 kts.

There is not much that can be said about Neoguri’s forecast. The frontal system currently affecting it is expected to leave it behind in a day or so, which is going to result in some very erratic and meandering movement over the open northern Pacific throughout the forecast period. Behind the front, the environment is not expected to be particularly favorable, with moderate shear and upwelling of colder subsurface waters likely to contribute to gradual weakening through the end of the forecast period. Neoguri will likely weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday, and it will likely not be far from where it started at the end of the forecast period, though another frontal system will likely be approaching by then.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 30.5°N 152.3°E – 90 kts

• 12 hrs: 30.4°N 153.5°E – 80 kts

• 24 hrs: 30.5°N 154.3°E – 70 kts

• 48 hrs: 31.3°N 155.2°E – 70 kts

• 72 hrs: 31.5°N 154.2°E – 60 kts

• 96 hrs: 32.0°N 153.5°E – 55 kts

• 120 hrs: 33.6°N 155.5°E – 55 kts