Typhoon Nakri (29W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12: 1500 UTC 13 October 2025

…Speedy Nakri losing tropical characteristics and expected to become post-tropical on Tuesday…

Current storm information:

• Position: 34.3°N 146.7°E

• Movement: E at 25 knots (45 km/h)

• Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

• Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Nakri will likely become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Discussion:

Nakri is losing tropical characteristics. Although Nakri is continuing to produce deep convection near its center, its internal structure has collapsed and most of the convection is becoming lopsided to the north and east of the center. Although Nakri’s fast forward motion is offsetting the effects of 30 to 40 kts of westerly shear, it isn’t preventing much drier air to the west from filtering into its circulation. Most of the products used for forecasting are back online and using Himawari-8 imagery - Dvorak fixes of T4.0 to T4.5 and D-PRINT and SATCON estimates of 64 and 65 kts support lowering the intensity to 70 kts. This may be conservative, though, as a RCM-2 SAR pass from 0820 UTC suggested winds of around 80 to 85 kts.

There are no changes to the forecast. Nakri is expected to continue racing eastward during the next couple of days. The shear is expected to become overwhelmingly strong, and this should result in weakening and continued extratropical transition. Nakri is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Tuesday evening. Most of the models have Nakri’s circulation becoming stretched out and decaying into a trough by Wednesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 34.3°N 146.7°E – 70 kts 

• 012 hrs: 35.1°N 150.7°E – 60 kts

• 024 hrs: 35.7°N 156.6°E – 50 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 048 hrs: 36.6°N 168.6°E – 35 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 072 hrs: Dissipated