Typhoon Nakri (29W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1500 UTC 12 October 2025

…Nakri becomes a typhoon as it accelerates east-northeastward south of Japan…

Current storm information:

• Position: 31.7°N 137.4°E

• Movement: ENE at 14 knots (25 km/h)

• Intensity: 65 knots (120 km/h) [Category 1]

• Central pressure: 982 hPa

Trend:

• Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 continues to experience an outage and many products that rely on it are unavailable, including many synoptic tools such as CIMSS shear analysis, ADT/AiDT, and KNES Dvorak fixes. JMA has pressed Himawari-8 back into service, so we at least have some satellite products. Nakri has quickly developed a symmetrical central dense overcast with a ragged eye feature present. However, it is becoming clear that Nakri is already in the early stages of extratropical transition as it interacts with a nearby frontal boundary, as convection is beginning to become lopsided, with indications of frontogenesis to the northeast and south. Available Dvorak fixes of T4.0 from PGTW and RJTD and a D-PRINT estimate of 68 kts suggest that Nakri is now a typhoon, and the intensity is increased to 65 kts.

Nakri is in the process of becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow as it rounds the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and the typhoon is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward during the next few days. Although shear will gradually increase during that time, Nakri’s fast forward motion should cancel out some of its effects, and so some strengthening appears likely. Nakri should peak in intensity on Tuesday before it crosses over colder SSTs, which should begin a weakening trend. Nakri will likely become entangled within a frontal boundary by Wednesday and become a post-tropical cyclone shortly after. The post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by another extratropical low by Thursday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 31.7°N 137.4°E – 65 kts 

• 012 hrs: 32.8°N 140.1°E – 70 kts

• 024 hrs: 33.8°N 144.4°E – 75 kts

• 048 hrs: 35.1°N 154.7°E – 60 kts

• 072 hrs: 36.2°N 166.4°E – 40 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 096 hrs: Absorbed by larger extratropical low