Typhoon Matmo (27W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 4 October 2025

Matmo becomes a typhoon again as it approaches Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula.

Author

Will Weaver
October 04, 2025

…Matmo becomes a typhoon again as it approaches Hainan and the Leizhou Peninsula…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 19.2°N 113.6°E

  • Movement: WNW at 13 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 984 hPa

Trend:

  • Rapid strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 18 hours before Matmo makes landfall, and Matmo could be close to Category 3 status by the time it makes landfall. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter.

Watches and warnings:

  • No. 8 Gale/Storm Signal (HKO/SMG): Macau

  • No. 3 Strong Wind Signal (HKO/SMG): Hong Kong

Hazards affecting land:

  • Matmo is expected to produce dangerous typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and life-threatening heavy surf and rip currents - along the southern coast of China, including the Leizhou Peninsula and the northern coastline of Hainan Island - beginning Sunday morning and continuing through the evening hours. Dangerous tropical storm conditions will spread to the northern coast of the Gulf of Tonkin in southern China and far northeastern Vietnam late Sunday evening and continuing through Monday. In addition, the heavy rainfall produced by Matmo will pose a widespread severe flooding threat through the middle of the week. For additional details, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 37GHz microwave satellite image

Matmo appears to be getting its act together quickly as it takes advantage of a highly favorable environment in the South China Sea. Convective bands have quickly wrapped their way around the circulation center, and a large but irregular eye feature is now present. The eyewall is open in the southwestern quadrant based on recent satellite and radar imagery, but the overall structure has rapidly improved over the past several hours. In addition, Matmo is exhibiting impressive radial outflow, with a very strong equatorward outflow channel due to highly favorable upper-level divergent wind flow. Dvorak fixes range from T4.0 to T4.5 while D-PRINT estimates 67 kts and SATCON estimates 61 kts; taking a blend of these data yields an intensity of 70 kts, making Matmo a typhoon again.

There are no changes to the track forecast as Matmo is embedded in strong southeasterly flow along the southwestern periphery of a strong ridge anchored over the East China Sea. The environment is expected to remain favorable while Matmo remains over open water, and CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance, as well as the HAFS-A model, continue to suggest a high likelihood of RI before landfall. Now that Matmo’s structure has improved, this appears to be fairly likely, and Matmo is forecast to intensify fairly quickly before it reaches the Leizhou Peninsula on Sunday evening. The current forecast does not explicitly show it due to the timing, but Matmo could reach Category 3 status just before landfall. After landfall, Matmo should weaken rapidly due to land interaction and increasing shear - although the center could move over the Gulf of Tonkin late Sunday, this should have little impact on its rate of weakening. Matmo should quickly weaken to a tropical depression along the China-Vietnam border on Monday and dissipate soon after. 

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 19.2°N 113.6°E – 70 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 20.3°N 111.7°E – 95 kts 

  • 024 hrs: 21.4°N 109.5°E – 65 kts 

  • 048 hrs: 23.2°N 105.7°E – 40 kts inland

  • 072 hrs: 24.7°N 102.2°E – 20 kts inland

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map