Typhoon Matmo (27W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1500 UTC 5 October 2025

Matmo moving along the northern coast of the Gulf of Tonkin.

Author

Will Weaver
October 05, 2025

…Matmo moving along the northern coast of the Gulf of Tonkin…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.6°N 109.0°E

  • Movement: WNW at 12 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 80 knots (150 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 978 hPa

Trend:

  • Rapid weakening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Dangerous tropical storm conditions are currently occurring along the northern coast of the Gulf of Tonkin in southern China and far northeastern Vietnam and will continue through Monday. In addition, the heavy rainfall produced by Matmo will pose a widespread severe flooding threat in southern China, northern Vietnam, and northeastern Laos through the middle of the week. For additional details, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Matmo made landfall on the Leizhou Peninsula at around 0640 UTC at an intensity of 90 kts. Since then, the typhoon has crossed the peninsula and is now skirting the northern edge of the Gulf of Tonkin. The system has become highly disrupted due to a dramatic increase in northeasterly shear and an increasingly dry continental air mass to the north, and most of Matmo’s internal structure has been obliterated as a result. The strongest convection associated with Matmo is located to the south and east of the center, while cloud tops north and west of the center have been warming rapidly as dry air infiltrates the circulation. The intensity is lowered to a potentially generous 80 kts, hedged between Dvorak fixes ranging from T4.5 to T5.0, and automated CIMSS intensity estimates ranging from 69 to 87 kts.

There are no changes to the forecast. Matmo should quickly move back inland over far southern China during the next couple of hours. Matmo should gradually turn toward the west as strong shear and dry air erode its convection, and it will likely decay into a trough of low pressure along the China-Vietnam border by Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 21.6°N 109.0°E – 80 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 22.3°N 107.6°E – 40 kts inland

  • 024 hrs: 23.1°N 105.7°E – 30 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 048 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map