Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W / Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 4 November 2025

Kalmaegi in the Sulu Sea and about to cross over Palawan...

Author

Will Weaver
November 04, 2025

…Kalmaegi in the Sulu Sea and about to cross over Palawan…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.8°N 120.2°E

  • Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 986 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours after Kalmaegi moves back out over open water.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #4 (Philippines): Far northern Palawan, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands 

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Northern Palawan, Caluya Islands, Antique, far northwestern Aklan

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): North central Palawan, southern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, southwestern Romblon, the rest of Aklan, western and central Capiz, western and central Iloilo, Guimaras, central and southern Negros Occidental

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Central Palawan, northern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, southern Marinduque, northern Romblon, southern Masbate, far eastern Capiz, far eastern Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, northeastern Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Cagayancillo Islands

Hazards affecting land:

  • None.Life-threatening typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and storm surge flooding - should begin occurring on portions of Palawan and the Calamian Islands shortly if they aren’t already. Tropical storm conditions remain possible in portions of the Central and Western Visayas during the next 12 to 18 hours.

  • Interests in Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of this system. It is likely that Kalmaegi could exacerbate an already catastrophic flooding situation in the region on Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 500 mm are possible through the weekend.

Discussion:

Kalmaegi has completed its passage over the Visayan islands, and land interaction has done a number on its structure. The typhoon consists of a thick curved band of very intense convection wrapping most of the way around the circulation center. Microwave satellite imagery indicates that a partial eyewall feature is still present, but is ragged and displaced slightly to the southwest of the surface center due to some low to moderate shear. The convection continues to be enhanced by strong dual-channel outflow, though the poleward outflow channel has become somewhat restricted. The intensity remains a potentially generous 70 kts, which is ahead of a spread of Dvorak estimates ranging from T3.5 to T4.0 and a Sentinel-1 SAR pass that measured maximum 10-minute winds of 52 kts.

The forecast is more or less unchanged, though the track forecast is a bit faster and confidence in the intensity forecast is lower than I would like. Although much of the model guidance, including the ECMWF, HWRF, HAFS-A, and Google DeepMind ensemble (GDM) suggests significant intensification once Kalmaegi is over the South China Sea, it appears that shear may be more of an issue than previously thought. The GFS shows a more gradual rate of strengthening. The forecast below attempts to split the difference and is slightly above the JTWC and JMA forecasts. Some steady intensification is likely during the next 36 hours before Kalmaegi encounters cooler SSTs off the Vietnam coast. However, Kalmaegi is expected to remain a strong typhoon through landfall on Friday. After Kalmaegi makes its final landfall, it should rapidly lose its convection and become a remnant low as it races inland over Laos and Thailand.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 10.8°N 120.2°E – 70 kts

  • 012 hrs: 11.3°N 118.6°E – 80 kts 

  • 024 hrs: 11.9°N 116.0°E – 90 kts

  • 036 hrs: 12.7°N 113.0°E – 100 kts

  • 048 hrs: 13.3°N 110.8°E – 90 kts 

  • 072 hrs: 15.1°N 105.4°E – 25 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 096 hrs: 16.5°N 101.3°E – 15 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map