Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W / Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7: 0000 UTC 4 November 2025

Kalmaegi moving across Negros and about to cross over Panay... Extremely dangerous conditions to move over Panay during the next hour or two...

Author

Will Weaver
November 03, 2025

…Kalmaegi moving across Negros and about to cross over Panay… …Extremely dangerous conditions to move over Panay during the next hour or two…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.6°N 123.1°E

  • Movement: W at 13 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

  • Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so while Kalmaegi remains over land. Some strengthening is likely beginning later tonight when Kalmaegi moves back out over water.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #4 (Philippines): Western Leyte (province), southern Aklan, central and southern Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, northern Negros Occidental, far northern Negros Oriental, northern Cebu, Bantayan Islands, Camotes Islands

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Far northern Palawan, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, Caluya Islands, northern Antique, northern Aklan, central Negros Occidental, central Negros Oriental, central Cebu, northern Bohol, far southwestern Masbate, Biliran, the rest of Leyte (province)

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Northern Palawan, southern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, southern Masbate, Samar (province), Southern Leyte (province), southern Negros Occidental, south central Negros Oriental, southern Bohol

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Northern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, southern Marinduque, southern Quezon, Burias Island, Albay, Sorsogon, Ticao Island, northern Masbate, Northern Samar (province), northeastern Samar (province), Eastern Samar (province), central Palawan, southern Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Camiguin Islands, Dinagat Islands, northern Surigao del Norte

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kalmaegi is currently producing life-threatening typhoon conditions, including destructive winds and heavy rain, over portions of Cebu, Negros, and Panay. These conditions will spread over Palawan late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in portions of the Central and Eastern Visayas further from the center and will likely spread over Mindoro late tonight. Storm total rainfall of up to 300 mm is possible through Wednesday, and this rainfall could cause widespread flooding in these areas. Most of the rainfall should be limited to points well south of Manila.

  • Interests in Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of this system. It is likely that Kalmaegi could exacerbate an already catastrophic flooding situation in the region on Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 500 mm are possible through the weekend.

The next advisory will be posted after 1200 UTC 4 November 2025.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 10.6°N 123.1°E – 70 kts over Negros Island

  • 012 hrs: 11.0°N 120.9°E – 75 kts 

  • 024 hrs: 11.4°N 118.7°E – 80 kts

  • 048 hrs: 12.8°N 113.3°E – 100 kts 

  • 072 hrs: 14.3°N 107.6°E – 35 kts inland

  • 096 hrs: 15.0°N 105.7°E – 25 kts inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map