Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W / Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 3 November 2025

Kalmaegi becomes a Category 2 typhoon as it closes in on Leyte... Landfall expected in the next couple of hours...

Author

Will Weaver
November 03, 2025

…Kalmaegi becomes a Category 2 typhoon as it closes in on Leyte… …Landfall expected in the next couple of hours…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.6°N 126.2°E

  • Movement: W at 12 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 90 knots (165 km/h) [Category 2]

  • Central pressure: 968 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Kalmaegi crosses over several landmasses.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #4 (Philippines): Far southeastern Eastern Samar (province), northern Cebu, Camotes Islands, southern Leyte (province), Southern Leyte, Dinagat Island, far northeastern Surigao del Norte, northern Bohol

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Southern Antique, central and southern Capiz, Iloilo, Bantayan Islands, Guimaras, northern Negros Occidental, northern Negros Oriental, central Cebu, central Bohol, central Leyte (province), southern Samar (province), southern Eastern Samar (province), the rest of Surigao del Norte

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Caluya Islands, Cuyo Islands, southern Romblon, northern Antique, Aklan, northern Capiz, southern Masbate, Biliran, northern Leyte (province), central Samar (province), central Eastern Samar (province), southern Negros Occidental, central Negros Oriental, southern Cebu, Siquijor, southern Bohol, Camiguin, northern Agusan del Norte, northern Surigao del Sur

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Northern and central Palawan, Calamian Islands, all of Mindoro, southern Marinduque, southern Quezon, Burias Island, Albay, Sorsogon, northern Romblon, northern Masbate, Ticao Island, Northern Samar (province), northern Samar (province), northern Eastern Samar (province), southern Negros Oriental, northern Zamboanga del Norte, northern Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, northern Bujidnon, southern Agusan del Norte, northern Agusan del Sur, southern Surigao del Sur

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kalmaegi is likely to produce typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and storm surge inundation - over portions of the Central and Eastern Visayas and northern Mindanao beginning in the next few hours. These conditions will spread over portions of Mindoro and Palawan later on Tuesday morning. Surrounding areas could also see heavy rainfall and dangerous, gusty winds between early Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening. The heaviest rainfall should be located well to the south of the Manila area. Rainfall totals of up to 300 mm are possible along the forecast track through Wednesday, with lesser amounts (up to 50 mm) likely in Southern Luzon, the Bicol Region, and northern Mindanao.

  • Interests in Vietnam should monitor the progress of this system. It is likely that Kalmaegi could exacerbate an already catastrophic flooding situation in the region on Friday and Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts of up to 500 mm are possible through the weekend.

Discussion:

F-18 SSMIS 91 GHz microwave satellite image

Kalmaegi is continuing to rapidly intensify, though thankfully it’s about to run out of time to do so. The system consists of a symmetric central dense overcast with extremely cold cloud tops, with hints of an eye intermittently visible just to the northwest of Dinagat Island. The internal structure is fairly impressive on the microwave satellite imagery we currently have available, with very intense convection occurring within the western eyewall. The inner core is notably very compact, and the radius of maximum winds is apparently not visible on scatterometer data, and it is likely that typhoon force winds do not extend very far from the center - JTWC estimates a radius of only about 30 nautical miles (about 55 kilometers). Kalmaegi continues to exhibit impressive radial outflow, with rainbands extending well to the north and west of the CDO. The intensity is increased to 90 kts, based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T5.0, although this is ahead of most of the automated estimates likely due to the eye not being a clear cut feature.

Kalmaegi should make landfall in central or southern Leyte during the next 2 to 3 hours. No significant change in strength appears likely before then, especially given that the typhoon is already showing some effects of land interaction. Once Kalmaegi makes landfall, it should weaken as it crosses basically all of the major Visayan Islands and enters the northernmost portion of the Sulu Sea late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. By this point, a ridge anchored over the Luzon Strait should cause Kalmaegi to turn west-northwestward as it crosses Palawan and enters the South China Sea. 

By that point, the forecast becomes problematic because nearly all of the available model guidance indicates significant intensification - the environment should be quite favorable with very warm SSTs and low shear. CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance continues to suggest a high probability of RI as Kalmaegi passes north of the Spratly Islands, and the current forecast makes Kalmaegi a Category 3 typhoon by Thursday. Some slight weakening is likely before Kalmaegi makes landfall in Vietnam due to cooler SSTs just off the coast, but Kalmaegi is expected to be an intense typhoon nonetheless. Interests in central and southern Vietnam, who have already experienced catastrophic flooding during the past couple of weeks, should closely monitor this situation. After landfall, Kalmaegi should rapidly weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low over Thailand by this weekend.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 10.6°N 126.2°E – 90 kts

  • 012 hrs: 10.8°N 123.3°E – 75 kts over Negros Island

  • 024 hrs: 11.2°N 121.0°E – 80 kts over water

  • 048 hrs: 12.3°N 116.1°E – 105 kts 

  • 072 hrs: 13.7°N 110.7°E – 100 kts 

  • 096 hrs: 15.3°N 106.0°E – 35 kts Post-tropical inland

  • 120 hrs: 16.5°N 102.2°E – 25 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

JMA forecast map