Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W / Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 0000 UTC 3 November 2025

Kalmaegi intensifies into a typhoon as it approaches Samar and Leyte...

Author

Will Weaver
November 02, 2025

…Kalmaegi intensifies into a typhoon as it approaches Samar and Leyte…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 10.5°N 128.9°E

  • Movement: WSW at 14 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 982 hPa

Trend:

  • Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Far southeastern Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, far northeastern Surigao del Norte

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Central and southern Samar and Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, northeastern Negros Occidental, northern and central Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, the rest of Surigao del Norte, northern Agusan del Norte, northern Surigao del Sur

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Calamian Islands, southern Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, southern Marinduque, far southern Quezon, Romblon, Albay, Ticao Island, Masbate, Northern Samar, northern Samar (province) and Eastern Samar (province), Cuyo Islands, the entirety of Panay, Guimaras, the rest of Negros, Siquijor, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, northern Bukidnon, southern Agusan del Norte, southern Surigao del Sur

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kalmaegi is likely to produce typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and storm surge inundation - over portions of the Central and Eastern Visayas beginning overnight Monday into Tuesday. These conditions will spread over portions of Mindoro and Palawan later on Tuesday morning. Surrounding areas could also see heavy rainfall and dangerous, gusty winds between early Tuesday morning and Tuesday evening. The heaviest rainfall should be located well to the south of the Manila area.

  • Interests in Vietnam should monitor the progress of this system. It is likely that Kalmaegi could exacerbate an already catastrophic flooding situation in the region on Thursday and Friday.

Discussion:

GPM GMI 37 GHz microwave satellite image

Kalmaegi has begun to get much better organized in a hurry as it continues barreling toward the Philippines. After a brief period following the previous advisory where Kalmaegi took on a rather disrupted appearance, the system has redeveloped a symmetric central dense overcast with hints of an eye feature becoming apparent on visible satellite imagery. 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery indicates the presence of a complete mid-level eyewall feature that appears to be vertically aligned with the surface center. Convective hot towers are flaring within this eyewall feature, and it probably won’t be long before an eye clears out. Given this quick improvement in Kalmaegi’s structure, Dvorak estimates have increased to a consensus T4.0, with some slightly higher automated estimates, and the intensity is increased to 70 kts, making Kalmaegi a typhoon.

GPM GMI 89 GHz microwave satellite image, indicating very intense convective banding wrapping into the center

Kalmaegi is moving at a fairly brisk pace and has lost some latitude as it gets nudged a bit to the south by a mid- to upper-level ridge centered northwest of Luzon. On this track, it has about 18 hours before moving inland over Leyte. The short-term RI parameters continue to suggest a high probability of rapid intensification prior to landfall, with a 57% chance (per RIPA) of an increase of 40 kts in the next 24 hours. The environment should be conducive for significant strengthening, and the new forecast brings Kalmaegi to just shy of Category 3 strength before landfall. The exact landfall intensity is not indicated due to temporal limitations (i.e., there is no 18-hour forecast point). After landfall, Kalmaegi should weaken somewhat as it crosses the Central Visayas before emerging over open water again early on Wednesday. 

Kalmaegi is expected to intensify significantly as it moves west-northwestward across the South China Sea as it should be in a very favorable environment of low shear, very warm SSTs that have not yet been cooled by the northeast monsoon, and ample moisture. Most of the available model guidance brings Kalmaegi to a higher peak of about 105 to 110 kts before it makes landfall in southern or central Vietnam on Friday. Unfortunately, it appears quite likely that Kalmaegi will impact an area already reeling from catastrophic flooding, and although Kalmaegi should weaken rapidly and become post-tropical after landfall, it is expected to exacerbate those conditions.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 10.5°N 128.9°E – 70 kts

  • 012 hrs: 10.5°N 126.5°E – 90 kts

  • 024 hrs: 10.8°N 123.6°E – 85 kts over Negros Island

  • 048 hrs: 11.6°N 119.1°E – 95 kts 

  • 072 hrs: 13.0°N 113.9°E – 105 kts 

  • 096 hrs: 14.6°N 108.7°E – 105 kts inland

  • 120 hrs: 16.3°N 103.9°E – 35 kts Post-tropical inland

JMA forecast map