Typhoon Kalmaegi (31W/Tino) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1500 UTC 5 November 2025

Kalmaegi strengthening quickly as it moves away from the Philippines... Potentially catastrophic flooding threat possible in Vietnam on Friday and Saturday...

Author

Will Weaver
November 05, 2025

…Kalmaegi strengthening quickly as it moves away from the Philippines… …Potentially catastrophic flooding threat possible in Vietnam on Friday and Saturday…

Replace this image with a current satellite image of the storm (Source)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 12.7°N 115.2°E

  • Movement: WNW at 12 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 90 knots (165 km/h) [Category 2]

  • Central pressure: 970 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours, and Kalmaegi could become a Category 3 typhoon on Tuesday.

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Kalayaan Islands

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Calamian Islands, Palawan

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kalmaegi is expected to produce typhoon conditions in central and southern Vietnam beginning late Thursday night. Very heavy rainfall is expected to spread inland early Friday morning, and rainfall totals of up to 300 mm are possible across much of the southern half of Vietnam through the weekend. This rainfall will likely exacerbate an already catastrophic flooding situation in much of Vietnam, producing widespread additional flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Kalmaegi has quickly gotten its act together now that it is moving away from the Philippines. The inner core, which had been quite ragged as it was crossing the Sulu Sea and Palawan, has quickly reestablished itself with a well-defined eyewall once again present around a very small eye feature. A compact central dense overcast has also bloomed around this eyewall and the eye is already becoming apparent on conventional satellite imagery. Additional bands of very intense convection also extend well to the south and west of the CDO within a very robust equatorward outflow channel. The intensity is increased to 90 kts, based on consensus T5.0 Dvorak fixes and is ahead of CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates, likely due to ADT not being able to resolve the small eye.

The track forecast is unchanged but the intensity forecast has been nudged upward in the short term. Kalmaegi has about 12 to 18 hours over very warm SSTs and relatively low shear, and it is possible that Kalmaegi could undergo rapid intensification during that time. The winds listed below are higher than in the JTWC forecast, but are in the middle of the guidance envelope. By Thursday evening, Kalmaegi should cross over sharply cooler SSTs off the Vietnam coast, although this will likely not result in substantial weakening before landfall, and Kalmaegi will likely be an intense system as it makes landfall. After landfall, Kalmaegi’s circulation should rapidly spin down over rough terrain in Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand, and the system will likely dissipate outright on Saturday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 12.7°N 115.2°E – 90 kts

  • 012 hrs: 13.3°N 113.3°E – 105 kts 

  • 024 hrs: 14.1°N 110.0°E – 100 kts

  • 048 hrs: 15.7°N 105.1°E – 30 kts inland

  • 072 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map