Typhoon Kajiki (19W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1500 UTC 24 August 2025

Rapidly intensifying Kajiki entering the Gulf of Tonkin as a strong Category 2 typhoon

Author

Will Weaver
August 24, 2025

…Rapidly intensifying Kajiki entering the Gulf of Tonkin as a strong Category 2 typhoon… …Expected to make landfall in Vietnam on Monday evening at Category 3 strength…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 18.0°N 108.8°E

  • Movement: WNW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 95 knots (175 km/h) [Cat 2]

  • Central pressure: 950 hPa

Trend:

  • Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Kajiki is expected to become a Category 3 typhoon later tonight.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kajiki is continuing to produce typhoon conditions along the southwestern coast of Hainan Island. Extremely dangerous and life-threatening typhoon conditions are expected to occur in portions of north and central Vietnam on Monday. Heavy rain and damaging winds are likely, and the rainfall could cause severe flooding. This rainfall will spread inland over Vietnam and into Laos and Thailand through midweek. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For additional information and warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

WSFM MWI 89GHz microwave satellite image

Kajiki has become an extremely impressive typhoon considering its location. Although a slight amount of land interaction has occurred as the northern semicircle has passed over Hainan Island, Kajiki continues to sport an intense and symmetric central dense overcast with a small, ragged eye feature. Radar data indicates the eye has shrunk somewhat in size in recent hours due to land interaction and the eyewall is slightly fragmented on its northern side, but intense convection has already begun to redevelop and wrap around the eye again. Kajiki continues to show impressive radial outflow in all quadrants. The current intensity of 95 kts is based on T5.0 to T5.5 Dvorak fixes from the various agencies, a CIMSS D-PRINT estimate of 92 kts, and a SATCON estimate of 102 kts. The radius of typhoon force winds is relatively compact, as Sanya on Hainan Island recently reported 10-minute sustained winds of 52 kts, gusting to 68 kts.

With the compact core of Kajiki now moving away from Hainan Island, conditions appear conducive for Kajiki to continue strengthening. CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA guidance indicate high probabilities of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours, with RIPA being most aggressive at a 47.1% chance of an increase of 40 kts during the next 24 hours. The JMA and JTWC forecasts are a bit too conservative given these factors, and the intensities given in the table below are higher as a result. Kajiki will likely be a strong and extremely dangerous Category 3 typhoon as it makes landfall in Vietnam near Vinh on Monday evening. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall, and Kajiki should become a remnant low over Myanmar on Tuesday night and dissipate soon after.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 18.0°N 108.8°E – 95 kts

  • 12 hrs: 18.4°N 107.3°E – 110 kts

  • 24 hrs: 18.8°N 105.0°E – 65 kts inland

  • 48 hrs: 19.7°N 100.2°E – 30 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map

One last thing…

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