Typhoon Kajiki (19W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 0000 UTC 24 August 2025

Kajiki rapidly becomes a typhoon. Northern eyewall expected to skirt along the southern Hainan coast later today.

Author

Will Weaver
August 23, 2025

…Kajiki rapidly becomes a typhoon… …Northern eyewall expected to skirt along the southern Hainan coast later today…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 17.3°N 111.2°E

  • Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Cat 1]

  • Central pressure: 968 hPa

Trend:

  • Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. If the center of Kajiki remains off the coast of Hainan Island, it could become a Category 2 typhoon later today.

Watches and warnings:

  • No. 1 Standby Signal (HKO/SMG): Hong Kong and Macau

Hazards affecting land:

  • Kajiki is expected to produce dangerous typhoon conditions over portions of southern Hainan Island beginning later this morning. These conditions will affect north central Vietnam on Monday. Heavy rain and damaging winds are likely, and the rainfall could cause severe flooding. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Discussion:

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx)

Kajiki has continued to rapidly intensify since the previous advisory. Although the eye remains cloud-filled, microwave satellite imagery and radar data from Hainan Island indicates that Kajiki’s eyewall structure has become much better defined, with what look to be concentric eyewalls present. Intense convection continues to flare in all quadrants, and the central dense overcast is more symmetric now than it has ever been. Kajiki is also sporting impressive radial outflow, though there is a little bit of dry air entrainment well to the west of the inner core. The intensity is increased to 70 kts, hedged between Dvorak estimates ranging from T4.0 to T4.5, a CIMSS ADT estimate of 61 kts, and a CIMSS D-PRINT estimate of 79 kts.

Kajiki has been tracking a bit further south than forecast, and so the forecast track has been nudged a bit to the south. The most notable change is that the forecast no longer shows landfall on Hainan Island. Because of this, Kajiki is now forecast to be significantly stronger by the time it makes landfall in Vietnam on Monday evening. Although land interaction will likely still temper Kajiki’s intensification process somewhat, CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance continue to suggest a high likelihood of continued rapid intensification during the next 24 hours. It is very possible that Kajiki could be near or at Category 3 strength by landfall. After landfall, Kajiki should weaken rapidly and become a remnant low by Tuesday. It should be noted that some of the model guidance suggests the potential for regeneration into a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal later next week.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 17.3°N 111.2°E – 70 kts

  • 12 hrs: 18.0°N 109.2°E – 80 kts

  • 24 hrs: 18.4°N 107.1°E – 90 kts

  • 48 hrs: 19.2°N 102.6°E – 30 kts Post-tropical/remnant low inland

  • 72 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map