Typhoon Danas (05W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6, 1500 UTC 7/6/25

…Danas now a Category 2 typhoon… …Eye beginning to skirt the western coast of Taiwan…

Current storm information:

• Position: 22.9°N 119.6°E

• Movement: NNE at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 90 knots (165 km/h) [Category 2]

• Central pressure: 958 hPa

Trend:

• A steady weakening trend is expected to begin later tonight and continue on Monday.

Watches and warnings:

• Typhoon warning (Taiwan): The entire island except for Kinmen County and Lienchiang County

• All storm signals for Hong Kong and Macau have been dropped.

Hazards affecting land:

• Danas is expected to produce extremely heavy rainfall over portions of Taiwan and southeastern China, mostly along the coast of the Taiwan Strait, beginning late tonight into Monday morning. In addition, strong tropical storm or typhoon conditions are possible along those coasts late tonight through Monday evening. Storm total rainfall of over 500 mm is possible in portions of Taiwan through Tuesday.

• The remnants of Danas are expected to produce extremely heavy rainfall over much of southern and eastern China and Taiwan beginning by midweek. This rainfall will likely cause widespread severe flooding.

• Heavy monsoonal rainfall is possible in the Batanes Islands and along the northern and western coasts of Luzon through Monday. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office. 

Discussion:

Danas is in the midst of a rapid intensification phase. The central dense overcast is slightly fragmented, but very intense convection continues to wrap most of the way around a very small, cloud-filled eye feature. The eye is very well evident on both satellite and radar imagery, with very intense convection within the northern and eastern eyewall. There are some indications that the Taiwan landmass and its central mountain range are starting to impinge upon the circulation, however, and this will probably bring Danas’s intensification to a halt fairly soon. It is also noteworthy that additional thunderstorms extend along the upper-level trough to the northeast, and there was briefly a well-organized mesoscale convective system northeast of Taiwan that itself resembled a miniature tropical cyclone. The intensity is increased to a potentially conservative 90 kts, although it should be noted that almost all the estimates are higher (Dvorak T5.5 from KNES and PGTW, T5.0 from RJTD, and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT of 97 and 99 kts).

As previously stated, Danas is already beginning to interact with Taiwan, and this should bring an end to its intensification. Most of the available model guidance suggests that Danas will continue its northeasterly track into Monday, and the forecast track now indicates that Danas will make landfall later tonight and pass just to the west of Taipei on Monday morning. This land interaction should cause Danas to begin rapidly weakening. On Tuesday, steering currents are expected to collapse and Danas will be swept up into a monsoon gyre over southeastern China, which will cause it to loop sharply to the west and make landfall in eastern China early Wednesday. Although the circulation of Danas will rapidly decay over land, it will likely contribute to a prolific rain event as it becomes incorporated into the monsoon gyre.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 22.9°N 119.6°E – 90 kts

• 12 hrs: 25.0°N 121.3°E – 70 kts inland

• 24 hrs: 26.7°N 122.4°E – 65 kts

• 48 hrs: 27.6°N 121.4°E – 50 kts

• 72 hrs: 26.5°N 118.2°E – 35 kts inland

• 96 hrs: 25.1°N 116.7°E – 25 kts Post-tropical/remnant low/inland

• 120 hrs: Dissipated