Typhoon Bualoi (26W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 0000 UTC 28 September 2025

Bualoi to make landfall in Vietnam overnight tonight into Monday.

Author

Will Weaver
September 27, 2025

…Bualoi to make landfall in Vietnam overnight tonight into Monday…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 16.3°N 109.4°E

  • Movement: W at 15 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 70 knots (130 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 980 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slight strengthening is forecast before Bualoi makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected thereafter.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and life-threatening flooding - are possible in northern and central Vietnam and along the southern coast of Hainan Island beginning later today and continuing through Monday. In addition, heavy rainfall will likely spread inland over Laos and northern Thailand through midweek. This rainfall could also cause widespread flooding. For additional information, including possible local warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Bualoi has not gotten significantly better organized since the previous advisory. In fact, its structure and satellite presentation have actually deteriorated, and CIMSS shear analysis suggests the culprit is some northerly subsidence that is impacting the system. Microwave satellite imagery indicates that the eye feature that had developed before the previous advisory has lost definition, with just a curved band of convection present along the southeastern periphery of the circulation center. In addition, the CDO has become fragmented, although some bands of intense convection are attempting to wrap back into the center from the north and west. The northerly subsidence also seems to be impinging upon Bualoi’s poleward outflow channel, which is restricted. The intensity is nudged down slightly to 70 kts, hedged between Dvorak estimates of T4.0 to T4.5 and automated ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates ranging from 59 to 77 kts.

Bualoi is about 18 hours away from landfall. The environment seems to be favorable for a little bit of additional strengthening before then, although given Bualoi’s current structure, it doesn’t appear that strengthening will be rapid. After landfall late tonight or early Monday, Bualoi should weaken very rapidly as it crosses rough terrain and encounters strong shear, and Bualoi should weaken to a tropical depression over Laos by Monday evening and dissipate outright on Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 16.3°N 109.4°E – 70 kts

  • 012 hrs: 17.6°N 107.1°E – 80 kts

  • 024 hrs: 18.7°N 104.7°E – 45 kts inland

  • 048 hrs: 20.8°N 100.1°E – 25 kts inland

  • 072 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map