Typhoon Bualoi (26W/Opong) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 0000 UTC 27 September 2025

Bualoi becomes a typhoon as it moves quickly westward.

Author

Will Weaver
September 26, 2025

…Bualoi becomes a typhoon as it moves quickly westward…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 13.8°N 115.8°E

  • Movement: W at 20 knots (35 km/h)

  • Intensity: 75 knots (110 km/h) [Category 1]

  • Central pressure: 982 hPa

Trend:

  • Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Southwestern Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, western Cavite, western Batangas, northwestern Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Islands

Hazards affecting land:

  • Typhoon conditions - destructive winds, heavy rain, and life-threatening flooding - are possible in northern and central Vietnam and along the southern coast of Hainan Island beginning on Sunday and continuing through Monday. For additional information, including possible local warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

GPM GMI 37GHz microwave satellite image

Bualoi is quickly getting its act together as it moves into an increasingly favorable environment. The central cold cover (CCC) pattern it had exhibited for the past couple of days has given way to a more typical curved band pattern with very intense convection beginning to wrap very tightly into a better defined low-level circulation center. Microwave satellite imagery also suggests that a somewhat irregularly shaped mid-level eye feature has developed with very intense convection located in the southeastern eyewall. This quick reorganization has resulted in Dvorak fixes increasing to a range of T4.0 to T5.0, although automated ADT and D-PRINT estimates are lagging behind. Still, taking a blend of these data yields an intensity of 75 kts, making Bualoi a typhoon.

Bualoi has about a day over open water in a highly favorable environment, and additional intensification appears likely. In fact, CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance indicates a fairly high likelihood of rapid intensification - RIPA gives a 53.3% chance of an increase of 40 kts in the next 24 hours. The only limiting factor appears to be Bualoi’s rapid forward speed, and Bualoi does not appear likely to slow down any time soon. Still, Bualoi will likely strengthen fairly significantly before land interaction becomes a factor on Sunday, and Bualoi will likely peak as a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall in northern Vietnam on Monday. Once Bualoi makes landfall, it should weaken rapidly, and it will likely dissipate over far northern Thailand or Myanmar on Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 13.8°N 115.8°E – 75 kts

  • 012 hrs: 15.4°N 112.6°E – 85 kts

  • 024 hrs: 16.6°N 109.0°E – 90 kts

  • 048 hrs: 19.3°N 105.2°E – 55 kts inland

  • 072 hrs: 20.7°N 100.7°E – 25 kts inland

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated

Replace this image with the actual forecast map