Tropical Storm Wutip (01W) - Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5, 0000 UTC 6/12/25

…Wutip strengthens a little as it turns toward the northwest…

Current storm information:

• Position: 17.2°N 110.3°E

• Movement: NW at 5 knots (10 km/h)

• Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

• Central pressure: 990 hPa

Trend:

• Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

• The No. 3 storm signal is active for Macau for the possibility of near-gale winds.

• The No. 1 standby signal is active for Hong Kong.

Hazards affecting land:

• Wutip is likely to produce very heavy rainfall over portions of Hainan Island and the eastern coast of Vietnam. This rainfall is expected to spread over southern China, including Macau and Hong Kong, over the weekend. Since Wutip will be relatively slow-moving, this rainfall is likely to cause widespread severe flooding. For further information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

Wutip has gotten a bit better organized over the past several hours. Although the system remains vertically tilted from east to west due to moderate east-northeasterly wind shear, the convection has gradually consolidated throughout the evening and taken on a dense overcast pattern. The cloud tops are quite cold, bottoming out at about -85°C. Most of the convection remains displaced to the south and west of the low-level center, which remains partially exposed to the northeast. Intensity estimates have increased somewhat as a result of this increased organization, and the current intensity of 40 kts is based on a blend of T2.5 to T3.0 Dvorak fixes from PGTW, KNES, and RJTD, as well as a CIMSS D-PRINT estimate of 38 kts. 

Wutip has slowed and begun turning toward the northwest as the TUTT cell to the north continues to decay, causing steering currents to collapse. The shear has yet to decrease, although much of the available guidance (with the notable exception of the HAFS-A model) suggests this should occur soon. Given that Wutip should be in a somewhat more favorable environment soon, it is forecast to strengthen at a fairly steady rate, peaking at around 50 kts by the time it moves over Hainan Island on Friday. Land interaction should bring the intensification to a halt, and although Wutip will move over the Gulf of Tonkin on Friday evening and Saturday, it is unlikely that Wutip will be able to take advantage, although it may maintain 50 kt strength before making landfall near the Leizhou Peninsula later on Saturday. Shortly after final landfall, Wutip will begin interacting with a frontal boundary, and it will likely become a post-tropical cyclone over southeastern China by Sunday before dissipating outright on Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 17.2°N 110.3°E - 40 kts

• 12 hrs: 17.7°N 109.4°E - 45 kts

• 24 hrs: 18.5°N 108.6°E - 50 kts

• 48 hrs: 20.9°N 109.5°E - 50 kts

• 72 hrs: 24.0°N 111.6°E - 40 kts Post-tropical/extratropical (inland)

• 96 hrs: 28.4°N 119.5°E - 40 kts Post-tropical/extratropical (inland)

• 120 hrs: Dissipated