Tropical Storm Wipha (96W/Crising) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 0000 UTC 18 July 2025

Sprawling tropical depression becomes Tropical Storm Wipha, expected to be a significant rainmaker across much of the Philippines during the next day or two

Author

Will Weaver
July 17, 2025

…Sprawling tropical depression becomes Tropical Storm Wipha… …Expected to be a significant rainmaker across much of the Philippines during the next day or two…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 17.0°N 124.5°E

  • Movement: NW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 40 knots (75 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 990 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Batanes Islands, Babuyan Islands, all of northern Luzon north of a line extending from northern Ilocos Sur to the Isabela/Aurora border

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Parts of northern Luzon not under TCWS #2 and north of a line extending from central Pangasinan to central Aurora

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

Hazards affecting land:

  • Wipha is likely to produce widespread heavy rainfall across much of the Philippines during the next couple of days as it interacts with an active monsoon trough. The heaviest rainfall will likely occur along coastal regions of northern Luzon, Mindoro, and Panay. Storm total rainfall of up to 500 mm is possible in isolated coastal areas through Saturday; storm total rainfall of 150 to 200 mm is possible through Saturday in interior areas, including the Metro Manila area. This rainfall is likely to cause widespread flooding and mudslides in vulnerable areas. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Interests in southern China, including Hong Kong and Macau, as well as northern Vietnam should monitor the progress of this system.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

The tropical depression has continued to steadily organize since the previous advisory, and JMA upgraded it to Tropical Storm Wipha at 1800 UTC. Wipha continues to have monsoon depression characteristics, consisting of a very broad circulation with a large core of light winds. However, convection has continued to increase in coverage and organization, with some well defined banding in the southern semicircle trying to wrap into the broad center. This convection has not yet consolidated into a central overcast, and the system is more or less two large areas of convection rotating around the center. The center itself may be in the process of reforming and consolidating, as the focus of the rotation is quite a bit to the northwest of the previous position. The intensity is increased to 40 kts - while this is ahead of most of the Dvorak-based estimates (T2.0 to T2.5), it is based on ASCAT passes from earlier today that showed an area of 35 to 40 kt winds mainly to the south and west of the center.

GPM GMI 89GHz microwave satellite image, showing intense convective banding south of the circulation center

Wipha is continuing to track further north than previously forecast as the subtropical ridging has not built as far west as the models initially projected. As a result, the track has been shifted north again and no longer shows Wipha making landfall in northern Luzon. This will actually be somewhat detrimental to Wipha, as passage over land would help tighten its broad circulation and enable it to strengthen more quickly. The forecast now calls for Wipha to strengthen more gradually as it moves through the Luzon Strait and into the South China Sea. Wipha is forecast to pass south of Hong Kong and Macau on Sunday before crossing the Leizhou Peninsula on Monday. Some additional strengthening is possible when Wipha moves over the Gulf of Tonkin, and Wipha may be close to typhoon intensity by the time it makes landfall in northern Vietnam on Wednesday.

It should be noted that some of the model guidance develops a new low pressure area east of Hainan Island early next week, and those models have Wipha performing a loop to the south and southeast before reaching Vietnam. This seems rather unlikely at the moment, but it can’t be ruled out, so there is low confidence in the late part of the forecast.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 17.0°N 124.5°E – 40 kts 

  • 12 hrs: 19.4°N 122.5°E – 45 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 20.1°N 119.8°E – 50 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 21.3°N 115.4°E – 50 kts

  • 72 hrs: 21.2°N 109.9°E – 45 kts inland

  • 96 hrs: 20.1°N 107.4°E – 60 kts 

  • 120 hrs: 19.9°N 105.1°E – 40 kts inland

JMA forecast map