Tropical Storm Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 10 August 2025

…Podul weakens dramatically under strong shear… …Forecast to reintensify…

Current storm information:

• Position: 21.2°N 136.0°E

• Movement: W at 11 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 50 knots (95 km/h)

• Central pressure: 995 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Podul’s current appearance highlights exactly why I have repeatedly stated that the intensity forecasts have been of low confidence. Podul has lost much of its structure as a result of even stronger northeasterly shear that has been impacting the system. The low-level circulation remains exposed to the north of the convection. The convection has lost most of its organization - the partial eyewall has disappeared and the banding has become ragged and fragmented. It is likely that JMA’s assessment of the system as a typhoon is too high as there are no indications that Podul is producing typhoon force winds - ASCAT only found winds of about 45 kts while RCM-3 SAR found winds of about 60 kts. Given that SAR observations have been inflated due to intense rain rates, the intensity is lowered to 50 kts.

This forecast continues to be maddeningly difficult because of where Podul is in relation to its environment. The models continue to insist that Podul will intensify during the next few days despite CIMSS analyzing 25 to 30 kts of northeasterly shear, with even stronger shear ahead. Given that the forecast track is generally unchanged, this forecast calls for a very slow strengthening trend through Tuesday, before overwhelmingly strong shear (40 to 50 kts) causes Podul to begin weakening before passing over northern Taiwan on Wednesday. Podul is likely to dissipate over eastern China on Thursday. Once again, this forecast is also low-confidence as any deviation to the south of the current forecast could result in Podul strengthening more than currently indicated.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 21.2°N 136.0°E – 50 kts

• 12 hrs: 21.6°N 133.4°E – 50 kts 

• 24 hrs: 21.8°N 130.7°E – 55 kts 

• 48 hrs: 23.1°N 125.5°E – 60 kts 

• 72 hrs: 25.5°N 120.5°E – 45 kts inland

• 96 hrs: 27.5°N 115.6°E – 30 kts inland

• 120 hrs: Dissipated