Tropical Storm Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5: 0000 UTC 9 August 2025

…Podul slightly stronger and moving westward…

Current storm information:

• Position: 21.2°N 142.5°E

• Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 50 knots (95 km/h)

• Central pressure: 996 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Although moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Podul, it is starting to show signs of getting better organized. While the surface circulation remains displaced to the north of the convection and is partially exposed, microwave satellite imagery indicates that Podul’s mid-level circulation has become better defined, and a partial eyewall is present around the mid-level center. The convection has also become more symmetric with improved banding features. If Podul were vertically aligned, it would likely be a much stronger system, but even with the system tilted as it is, Dvorak fixes of T3.0 to T3.5 and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 54 kts each yield a possibly conservative estimate of 50 kts. A RCM-3 SAR pass measured winds of nearly 70 kts east of the center, but these high measurements appear to be due to ice and rain contamination.

The forecast has been nudged further north again as global model guidance is trending toward a recurvature near the end of the forecast period. Although the subtropical ridge to the north is strong and should steer Podul westward through Monday, both the ECMWF and GFS operational and ensemble models - as well as the HAFS model - show a frontal boundary dropping down from the Yellow Sea and weakening the ridge. The ridge being weaker is not good news for Podul, either, because a track further to the north will keep Podul in a marginal to unfavorable environment with persistent northeasterly shear. Warm SSTs and a fairly moist air mass should enable some gradual strengthening during the next few days, likely reaching typhoon intensity by Tuesday. By Wednesday, even stronger shear should cause Podul to weaken rapidly as it enters the East China Sea, and while there is a forecast point at 120 hours, it is very possible that Podul could dissipate by that point.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 21.2°N 142.5°E – 50 kts

• 12 hrs: 22.0°N 140.8°E – 50 kts 

• 24 hrs: 22.2°N 138.5°E – 55 kts 

• 48 hrs: 22.2°N 133.7°E – 60 kts 

• 72 hrs: 23.1°N 129.1°E – 65 kts

• 96 hrs: 25.8°N 125.1°E – 50 kts

• 120 hrs: 28.1°N 119.9°E – 35 kts inland