Tropical Storm Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 1200 UTC 8 August 2025

Podul moving away from the Marianas with no change in strength.

Author

Will Weaver
August 08, 2025

…Podul moving away from the Marianas with no change in strength…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 20.9°N 144.6°E

  • Movement: NW at 8 knots (15 km/h)

  • Intensity: 45 knots (85 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 1000 hPa

Trend:

  • Steady strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

  • The tropical storm watch for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan has been cancelled and there are no land-based watches or warnings in effect.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in the Batanes Islands, Taiwan, the Yaeyama Islands, and Okinawa should monitor the progress of Podul.

Discussion:

METOP-B MHS 89GHz microwave satellite image. Low resolution, but it shows the convection displaced well to the southwest of the center. (RAMMB/CIRA)

Podul continues to experience northeasterly wind shear. The tropical storm continues to have a vertically tilted appearance, with the circulation center partially exposed along the northeastern edge of the convection. The convection is not well organized either, consisting of flaring clusters near the center with some fragmented bands located further to the southwest. A recent RCM-3 SAR pass indicated that the circulation center is somewhat elongated, as well, and the wind field is asymmetrical with the strongest winds south of the center. The intensity remains 45 kts, based on consensus T3.0 Dvorak fixes, although this could be a bit conservative as the SAR pass suggests that winds of around 50 kts could be occurring southwest of the center. 

RCM-3 Synthetic Aperture Radar pass, showing the band of 50 knot winds east of the center, which is sharply elongated

The forecast has been adjusted quite a bit - with the intensity forecast being adjusted way lower - and is problematic. The environment has proven to not be nearly as favorable as the models suggested they would be. Even worse, model guidance suggests the shear could increase even more during the next couple of days. Given Podul’s compact size and increased sensitivity to environmental changes, it does not look like rapid intensification is likely. However, some slow intensification does appear to be possible as SSTs and mid-level moisture should still be conducive for development. The upper end of the intensity forecast late in the period has been adjusted significantly downward, as Podul is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest near the Yaeyama Islands on Tuesday as it encounters a weaker portion of the ridge. Assuming Podul can fend off the shear earlier in the forecast period, it is still expected to become a typhoon on Tuesday before moving inland over northern Taiwan and weakening.

It should also be noted that some models, including the GFS operational and ensemble models, show Podul not surviving the unfavorable environment and opening up into a trough by early next week. This is not being forecast at the moment, but it is a distinct possibility, and needless to say the intensity forecast remains a very low-confidence one at this time.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 20.9°N 144.6°E – 45 kts

  • 12 hrs: 21.4°N 142.5°E – 50 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 21.8°N 140.8°E – 50 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 21.8°N 135.7°E – 55 kts 

  • 72 hrs: 22.1°N 130.7°E – 65 kts

  • 96 hrs: 23.0°N 125.7°E – 75 kts

  • 120 hrs: 24.8°N 121.1°E – 45 kts inland

Forecast map